Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a> </li>
</ul>Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a></li>
</ul>Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.<div class="content-highlight">
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
</div>While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold.

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the announcement from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...

Match Group Inc (MTCH US) 

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) 

Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US) 
Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... 

Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) 

Unum Group (UNM US) 
National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)
Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold. 

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance:  3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 22 August, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/psc-insurance-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24266:1" rel="noopener">Psc Insurance (PSI AU)</a> IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.</li>
</ul>


On 22 August, the Psc Insurance (PSI AU) IE considered Ardonagh’s A$6.19 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$5.69 to A$6.65 valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on shareholder approval of the scheme. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake. The scheme meeting is on 26 September.
The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.</li>
<li>We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.
We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.


Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, while the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a>.There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tandem-diabetes-care-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20893:1" rel="noopener">Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a>, UniqureNV (QURE US) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a>.The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-insurance-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19222:1" rel="noopener">United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/team-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6811:1" rel="noopener">Team Inc (TISI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a>.There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the September review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.There are 3 inclusion -  Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) and Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), while the exclusions are Unum Group (UNM US), National Oilwell Varco (NOV US) and Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US).There are inclusions/exclusions to the S&amp;P MidCap 400 and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 as well.The stocks with the largest impact from passive buying are Match Group Inc (MTCH US), Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM US), Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US), UniqureNV (QURE US) and Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US).The stocks with the largest impact from passive selling are United Insurance Holdings (UIHC US), Team Inc (TISI US), Unum Group (UNM US), Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV US).There are a lot of other stocks that will have a lot to buy/sell from passive funds due to changes in the number of shares and free float and due to funding flows.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

APlus Asset Advisor / Equity Capital Markets

Established in 2007, APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. Aplus Asset Advisory is the Korean market leader in the independent corporate insurance agency (GA) business that compares and analyzes various products of insurance companies and provides optimal insurance and financial services to its customers. 
The IPO price range is from 10,500 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $26 million to $30 million. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 237 billion won to 278 billion won. NH Investment Securities is the lead underwriter of this IPO. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 5 November. 
Aplus Asset Advisor generated revenue of 269.4 billion won (up 16% YoY) and an operating profit of 20.9 billion won (up 24.9% YoY) in 2019. The company's operating margin averaged 7.1% from 2016 to 1H 2020. From 2016 to 2019, the company's sales increased at a CAGR of 9.3%.

Established in 2007, APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. Aplus Asset Advisory is the Korean market leader in the independent corporate insurance agency (GA) business that compares and analyzes various products of insurance companies and provides optimal insurance and financial services to its customers. 
The IPO price range is from 10,500 won to 12,300 won. The IPO base deal size is from $26 million to $30 million. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 237 billion won to 278 billion won. NH Investment Securities is the lead underwriter of this IPO. The book-building for the institutional investors starts on 5 November. 
Aplus Asset Advisor generated revenue of 269.4 billion won (up 16% YoY) and an operating profit of 20.9 billion won (up 24.9% YoY) in 2019. The company's operating margin averaged 7.1% from 2016 to 1H 2020. From 2016 to 2019, the company's sales increased at a CAGR of 9.3%.

United States

Brown & Brown, Inc. and its subsidiaries provide a range of insurance and reinsurance products and services.  The Company also provides risk management, employee benefit administration, and managed health care services.  Brown & Brown operates offices across the United States.

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Brown & Brown (BRO US)

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

PSC Insurance (PSI AU): A Done Deal

The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close and for the 11 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/12.1%.

Arun George

Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

$SPX is 1% above 4300-4325 which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023. Our view since May 30 (ETF Pathfinder) is we cannot be bearish if SPX is...

Vermilion Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Swiping Right on Match

There are 3 changes to the S&P500 that will be implemented at the close on 17 Sep. There are changes to the S&P400 & S&P600 as well. There will be...

Brian Freitas

APlus Asset Advisor IPO Preview

APlus Asset Advisor is getting ready to complete its IPO in the Korean stock market in November. This is the Korean market leader in the...

Douglas Kim

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