Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

<ul><li>This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.</li><li>We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.</li><li>Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.</li></ul>

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound.We aim to cover all asset classes, what to buy, what to sell, and what to expect next in the months to come when it comes to both US and global PMI’s.Today’s services PMI’s from the EZ showed further signs of the European services sector weakening, with both Spain and Italy surprising to the downside of expectations of a &gt;50 reading.

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.</li><li>The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.</li><li>Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.</li></ul>

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Brazil

The Brazilian real is the official currency of the Federative Republic of Brazil.  

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BRL (USDBRL CURNCY)

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

Services Week: What to Buy if Manufacturing Rebounds While Services Weaken?

This week’s theme is the weakening in the services sector amidst manufacturing potentially looking to rebound. We aim to cover all asset classes,...

Steno Research

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party. The first destination for the flying journalist...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)