Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> suffered on negative news, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.</li>
</ul>


China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.

Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) suffered on negative news, while Meituan (3690 HK) continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

British American Tobacco  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>During the last quarter, BAT showed a decent performance with growing revenue, profit, and earnings per share.</li><li>The focus on New Categories has been successful, with revenue from non-combustibles increasing significantly.</li><li>By prioritizing sharper execution and responsible New Category development, BAT aims to navigate regulatory challenges.</li></ul>

During the last quarter, BAT showed a decent performance with growing revenue, profit, and earnings per share.The focus on New Categories has been successful, with revenue from non-combustibles increasing significantly.By prioritizing sharper execution and responsible New Category development, BAT aims to navigate regulatory challenges.

British American Tobacco PLC ADR: Major Drivers

<ul><li>British American Tobacco delivered decent financial results and successfully navigated a progressively challenging macro environment.</li><li>In New Categories, the company delivered strong revenue growth driven by Geo expansion, innovation, and share growth.</li><li>British American Tobacco launched the first connected Vapour device of the Group, Vuse ePod2 plus, that drives increased pod consumption.</li></ul>

British American Tobacco delivered decent financial results and successfully navigated a progressively challenging macro environment.In New Categories, the company delivered strong revenue growth driven by Geo expansion, innovation, and share growth.British American Tobacco launched the first connected Vapour device of the Group, Vuse ePod2 plus, that drives increased pod consumption.

British American Tobacco: New Category Growth

United Kingdom

British American Tobacco P.L.C. operates as a holding company for a group of companies that manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products including cigars and roll-your-own tobacco.

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British American Tobacco (BTI US)

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

British American Tobacco PLC ADR: Major Drivers

During the last quarter, BAT showed a decent performance with growing revenue, profit, and earnings per share. The focus on New Categories has...

Baptista Research

British American Tobacco: New Category Growth

British American Tobacco delivered decent financial results and successfully navigated a progressively challenging macro environment. In New...

Baptista Research

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