Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

AU Small Finance Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We spoke to channels associated with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-small-finance-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24196:1" rel="noopener">AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kajaria-ceramics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13916:1" rel="noopener">Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apl-apollo-tubes-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16132:1" rel="noopener">Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-star-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5162:1" rel="noopener">Blue Star Ltd (BLSTR IN)</a> </li>
<li>Small Business Loan growth is slowing at AU, some down trading due to price increases seen in Kajaria </li>
<li>APL is getting hurt by cheaper alternatives, Blue Star channels are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming Air Conditioner season. </li>
</ul>


We spoke to channels associated with AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) , Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) , Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) &amp; Blue Star Ltd (BLSTR IN) 
Small Business Loan growth is slowing at AU, some down trading due to price increases seen in Kajaria 
APL is getting hurt by cheaper alternatives, Blue Star channels are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming Air Conditioner season. 


Channel Insight #29 | AU Bank, Kajaria, APL Apollo, Blue Star

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In our earlier insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pli-schemes-let-s-not-get-carried-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45394" rel="noopener">PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away</a> we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

In our earlier insight, PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25998:1" rel="noopener">Tata Group (1396Z IN)</a> is aiming to become a serious contender in the Indian E-Commerce race with a potential stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> backed BigBasket</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> re-gains its top slot in global smartphones thanks to market share gains in India</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> backed Whatsapp Pay gets its act together in the already competitive Indian Payments Market, expected to roll out soon. </li>
<li>India bans import of AC units, but we see no major market share gains for top players. </li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Tata Group (1396Z IN) is aiming to become a serious contender in the Indian E-Commerce race with a potential stake in Alibaba Group (BABA US) backed BigBasket

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) re-gains its top slot in global smartphones thanks to market share gains in India

Facebook Inc A (FB US) backed Whatsapp Pay gets its act together in the already competitive Indian Payments Market, expected to roll out soon. 
India bans import of AC units, but we see no major market share gains for top players. 


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Bigbasket, Samsung, Whatsapp Pay, India's AC Ban

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

<ul>
<li>While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments</li>
<li>The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.</li>
<li>A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze</li>
<li>With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter</li>
</ul>


While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments
The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.
A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze
With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter


India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

As 2Q FY19 earnings season comes to a close, there is clear message that while many companies across sectors have not done badly on sales growth, the picture on margins looks much less promising. The interesting thing is that pressure on profitability is not limited to a few companies or just few categories. In addition, geographical exposure and client base doesn't seem to matter as well. We believe this is an important trend because while business strategy of these companies can't be questioned, demand may not be as robust as inferred from sales numbers alone. Despite recent correction, Indian markets are not in value zone yet and no or little PAT growth is bad news. The valuations continue to remain at elevated levels for several stocks and it will be key for market performance over short to medium term.

As 2Q FY19 earnings season comes to a close, there is clear message that while many companies across sectors have not done badly on sales growth, the picture on margins looks much less promising. The interesting thing is that pressure on profitability is not limited to a few companies or just few categories. In addition, geographical exposure and client base doesn't seem to matter as well. We believe this is an important trend because while business strategy of these companies can't be questioned, demand may not be as robust as inferred from sales numbers alone. Despite recent correction, Indian markets are not in value zone yet and no or little PAT growth is bad news. The valuations continue to remain at elevated levels for several stocks and it will be key for market performance over short to medium term.

India: Margins Under Pressure Across Sectors, Is Demand Really Strong and What It Means for Markets?

India

Blue Star Limited manufactures and markets a wide range of air-conditioning and commercial refrigeration systems and products. The Company's products include large central air-conditioning plants, packaged air-conditioning systems, split and window air conditioners, water coolers, bottled water dispensers, deep freezers and cold storages.

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Blue Star Ltd (BLSTR IN)

Channel Insight #29 | AU Bank, Kajaria, APL Apollo, Blue Star

We spoke to channels associated with AU Small Finance Bank Limited (AUBANK IN) , Kajaria Ceramics (KJC IN) , Apl Apollo Tubes (APAT IN) & Blue Star...

Pranav Bhavsar

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in. However, the recent development of the scheme has left most of the...

Nitin Mangal

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Bigbasket, Samsung, Whatsapp Pay, India's AC Ban

Tata Group joins the e-commerce race eyeing a stake on BABA backed Bigbasket, India helps Samsung regain its global spot, WhatsApp Pay expected to...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments The...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India: Margins Under Pressure Across Sectors, Is Demand Really Strong and What It Means for Markets?

As 2Q FY19 earnings season comes to a close, there is clear message that while many companies across sectors have not done badly on sales growth,...

Pankaj Sharma

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