Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."</li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.</li>
<li>Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. </li>
</ul>


It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like Fast Retailing (9983 JP), the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
Short Yuexiu Property (123 HK) now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

<ul>
<li>There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin (2503 JP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores (BKL AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific (142 HK)</a> &amp; Co's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


There are 39 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Kirin (2503 JP)'s Offer for Blackmores (BKL AU); First Pacific (142 HK) &amp; Co's Offer for Metro Pacific (MPI PM).
Key updates took place for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), and Jiangnan (1366 HK) 



(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Blackmores, Metro Pacific, Invocare, AAG Energy, Jiangnan

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> is eyeing the vitamin game with a proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's most recent closing price.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>'s expertise in navigating China's stringent regulations could be the missing piece for Kirin to gain access to the lucrative supplement market in China.</li>
<li>Our main concern is Kirin's history of unsuccessful overseas business acquisitions, particularly outside of its core beer business.</li>
</ul>



Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) is eyeing the vitamin game with a proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's most recent closing price.

Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)'s expertise in navigating China's stringent regulations could be the missing piece for Kirin to gain access to the lucrative supplement market in China.
Our main concern is Kirin's history of unsuccessful overseas business acquisitions, particularly outside of its core beer business.


Kirin's Bid for Blackmores: Leveraging Regulatory Expertise to Enter China's Supplement Market

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has entered a binding proposal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   </li>
<li>The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has entered a binding proposal with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).
The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   
The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.


Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

<ul>
<li>Japan's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> has proposed taking Aussie vitamin play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> private by way of a Scheme at A$95/share. </li>
<li>That's a 23.7% premium to last close, and represents 23.1x LTM December 2022 EBITDA. </li>
<li>Irrevocables are 18% of shares out. This Scheme requires clearance from ACCC, FIRB - and China's SAMR.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has proposed taking Aussie vitamin play Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) private by way of a Scheme at A$95/share. 
That's a 23.7% premium to last close, and represents 23.1x LTM December 2022 EBITDA. 
Irrevocables are 18% of shares out. This Scheme requires clearance from ACCC, FIRB - and China's SAMR.


Australia

Blackmores Limited manufactures and markets vitamin, herbal, mineral supplements and natural skin and hair treatment products in Australia and New Zealand. These products are supplied to the over the counter retail market and to health care professionals. The Company also has a line of natural beauty and aromatherapy products and its products are distributed in South East Asia.

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Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Blackmores, Metro Pacific, Invocare, AAG Energy, Jiangnan

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Kirin's Bid for Blackmores: Leveraging Regulatory Expertise to Enter China's Supplement Market

Kirin Holdings is eyeing the vitamin game with a bold proposal to buy Blackmores at AU$95 per share, representing a 23.7% premium over the stock's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming. At the last close, the annualised spread for a late August payment is 2.2%.

Arun George

Kirin Looks To Take Blackmores Private

On balance, this looks done. The current share price of A$93.50 would seem to validate this. Trading tight at 1.6%/3.8% assuming late Sept...

David Blennerhassett

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