Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025</li>
<li>
 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending</li>
<li>
 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024</li>
</ul>



 Global Liquidity Cycle bottomed in October 2022.  Cycle set to expand further to a peak in late-2025

 Federal Reserve liquidity already rising and driven over medium-term by need to monetize mandatory fiscal spending

 Global Liquidity set to rise by US$12-15 trillion in 2024


Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.</li>
<li>US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.</li>
<li>Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.</li>
</ul>


After a ten-year struggle, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved, closing one of the most entertaining and remarkable (what regulator gets hacked in the process) ETF races ever.
US inflation came in hotter than expected, but unlike previous months, underlying data was pretty benign, with one measure of headline CPI dropping below 2% for the first time in 3.5 years.
Chinese equities are out. And not just by sentiment-driven short-term investors. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks are on fire, powering ahead by more than 6% since the start of this year.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SEC narrowly approves listing of spot Bitcoin ETF citing high correlation between CME futures and spot bitcoin price and adequacy of CME surveillance sharing.</li>
<li>New ETFs offer highly competitive expense ratios. ETFs also offer discount to expense ratio during a discount period.</li>
<li>ETFs see strong trading activity on day 1 but much of it likely came from outflows from GBTC to lower cost ETFs.</li>
</ul>


SEC narrowly approves listing of spot Bitcoin ETF citing high correlation between CME futures and spot bitcoin price and adequacy of CME surveillance sharing.
New ETFs offer highly competitive expense ratios. ETFs also offer discount to expense ratio during a discount period.
ETFs see strong trading activity on day 1 but much of it likely came from outflows from GBTC to lower cost ETFs.


Spot BTC ETFs Attract $4.3 Billion on Day 1 Paving the Way for Institutional Adoption

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception.</li><li>The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden have changed with sentiment going from full risk-on to risk-averse as the calendar has turned.</li><li>The US will be the overshadowing region to watch in the coming weeks as they look troubled the most with prices looking to stay hawkish for some time to come, while the labor market is weakening, but increasing growth due to easier financial conditions could keep the US away from stagflation.</li></ul>

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception.The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden have changed with sentiment going from full risk-on to risk-averse as the calendar has turned.The US will be the overshadowing region to watch in the coming weeks as they look troubled the most with prices looking to stay hawkish for some time to come, while the labor market is weakening, but increasing growth due to easier financial conditions could keep the US away from stagflation.

5 Things We Watch: USD-flation, Global Inflation, US Labor Market, Japan, Bitcoin

United States

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

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Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY)

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Global Liquidity And The US Fed Pivot

What are the prospects for Global Liquidity in 2024? We expect Global Liquidity to expand by a further US$12-15 trillion, following last year’s...

Michael J. Howell

The Weekly Market Monitor – Chinese Equities Out, Bitcoin In!

With hindsight, this week likely marks Bitcoin's 'official' adoption as a new asset class. Meanwhile, investors seem done with China, once the...

Jeroen Blokland

Spot BTC ETFs Attract $4.3 Billion on Day 1 Paving the Way for Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin avoided a sell-the-news event following SEC approval but also failed to sustain a rally. The paper discusses details of approval, details...

Mint Finance

5 Things We Watch: USD-flation, Global Inflation, US Labor Market, Japan, Bitcoin

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception. The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden...

Steno Research

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