IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.</p></div><div><p>Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and Lilith Games.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49410" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights,</a> we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. </p></div></div></div>

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Lilith Games.In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. </p>
<p>We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In our previous notes:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
</ul>
</div>


On 24th Mar 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs fell by 7.5% on average. 
We have covered various aspects of this topic before in our prior note, links to which are below. In this note, I'll talk about the SEC updates.


In our previous notes:




China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 



China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>The Chinese Q&amp;A inspired online community platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a>  has set the terms for its IPO. The company plans to sell 55m ADS’ (two ADS’ represent one ordinary share of the company) at an indicative price range of US$9.5-11.5 per ADS. Concurrent with the company’s IPO, Zhihu also has entered into agreements with Alibaba, JD.com, Image Frame Investment (an affiliate of Tencent Holdings) and Lilith Games to sell approx. US$250m worth of ordinary shares of the company.</p><p>At the midpoint of the above IPO pricing, Zhihu will raise approx. US$884.7m (assuming underwriters exercise their option) from the IPO as well as from the concurrent private placement. At the above IPO price range, Zhihu will have a market capitalisation of US$5.4-6.5bn and an enterprise value of US$4-5.2bn (after adjusting for net cash and net IPO proceeds assuming underwriters exercise their option).</p><p>Zhihu plans to use the above net proceeds on developing its products and services, marketing and user growth, R&amp;D and other general corporate purposes.</p>

The Chinese Q&amp;A inspired online community platform Zhihu Technology (ZH US)  has set the terms for its IPO. The company plans to sell 55m ADS’ (two ADS’ represent one ordinary share of the company) at an indicative price range of US$9.5-11.5 per ADS. Concurrent with the company’s IPO, Zhihu also has entered into agreements with Alibaba, JD.com, Image Frame Investment (an affiliate of Tencent Holdings) and Lilith Games to sell approx. US$250m worth of ordinary shares of the company.At the midpoint of the above IPO pricing, Zhihu will raise approx. US$884.7m (assuming underwriters exercise their option) from the IPO as well as from the concurrent private placement. At the above IPO price range, Zhihu will have a market capitalisation of US$5.4-6.5bn and an enterprise value of US$4-5.2bn (after adjusting for net cash and net IPO proceeds assuming underwriters exercise their option).Zhihu plans to use the above net proceeds on developing its products and services, marketing and user growth, R&amp;D and other general corporate purposes.

Zhihu IPO Valuation: Attractive at the Lower End of the IPO Pricing

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>  reported its 4Q2020 results on Monday (22<sup>nd</sup> March) after market which saw revenues growing 14.3% YoY to RMB8.3bn. Despite revenues growing YoY during the quarter, TME’s operating profit declined 5% YoY resulting in a 250bps drop in the company’s OPM. TME’s revenues for 4Q2020 were in line with consensus estimates, however, reported OP was 21.8% below consensus expectations.</p><p>In our previous insights, we discussed the company’s business model, segments, revenue and margins in detail.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tme-secondary-listing-monetisation-efforts-in-social-entertainment-should-boost-top-line-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48830" rel="noopener">TME Secondary Listing: Monetisation Efforts in Social Entertainment Should Boost Top Line Growth</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-music-secondary-unlikely-for-margins-to-expand-but-should-remain-stable-at-current-level" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49034" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Secondary: Unlikely for Margins to Expand but Should Remain Stable at Current Level</a> </p>

Tencent Music (TME US)  reported its 4Q2020 results on Monday (22nd March) after market which saw revenues growing 14.3% YoY to RMB8.3bn. Despite revenues growing YoY during the quarter, TME’s operating profit declined 5% YoY resulting in a 250bps drop in the company’s OPM. TME’s revenues for 4Q2020 were in line with consensus estimates, however, reported OP was 21.8% below consensus expectations.In our previous insights, we discussed the company’s business model, segments, revenue and margins in detail.TME Secondary Listing: Monetisation Efforts in Social Entertainment Should Boost Top Line Growth Tencent Music Secondary: Unlikely for Margins to Expand but Should Remain Stable at Current Level 

TME 4Q Results: Strong Finish to 2020, Further Strengthens Partnerships and Focus on New Initiatives

<p>The Chinese mobile games and video platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>  has set the terms for its secondary listing in Hong Kong Exchange. Bilibili plans to offer 25m shares at a maximum offer price of HK$988 per share and will raise net proceeds of HK$24.3bn (approx. US$3.13bn) at the above pricing.</p><p>Bilibili’s shares closed at US$108.87 per ADS at the end of trading on Friday (19<sup>th</sup> March), and each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company. The maximum HK offer price of HK$988 per share implies approx. US$127.2 per ADS, a 17% premium to Bilibili’s last close price of US$108.87 per ADS.</p><p>The company plans to use approx. 50% of the net IPO proceeds on enhancing and broadening its content offerings to expand its user base. Bilibili plans to use 20% of net proceeds on enhancing its R&amp;D capabilities to improve user experience and another 20% on sales and marketing expenses.</p><p>In our previous insight on the company’s secondary listing, we discussed Bilibili’s valuation against its peers.</p>

The Chinese mobile games and video platform Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  has set the terms for its secondary listing in Hong Kong Exchange. Bilibili plans to offer 25m shares at a maximum offer price of HK$988 per share and will raise net proceeds of HK$24.3bn (approx. US$3.13bn) at the above pricing.Bilibili’s shares closed at US$108.87 per ADS at the end of trading on Friday (19th March), and each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company. The maximum HK offer price of HK$988 per share implies approx. US$127.2 per ADS, a 17% premium to Bilibili’s last close price of US$108.87 per ADS.The company plans to use approx. 50% of the net IPO proceeds on enhancing and broadening its content offerings to expand its user base. Bilibili plans to use 20% of net proceeds on enhancing its R&amp;D capabilities to improve user experience and another 20% on sales and marketing expenses.In our previous insight on the company’s secondary listing, we discussed Bilibili’s valuation against its peers.

Bilibili: Secondary Listing in HK Offers a Good Alternative to Kuaishou

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Zhihu IPO: Trading Debut

Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range, according to press reports. Despite the recent de-rating of...

Arun George

China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone

On 24th Mar 2021, SEC issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. On the back of this, large China ADRs...

Sumeet Singh

Zhihu IPO Valuation: Attractive at the Lower End of the IPO Pricing

We believe Zhihu’s IPO is attractive at the lower end of the IPO price of US$9.5 per ADS. The company is still in early stages of monetising its...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

TME 4Q Results: Strong Finish to 2020, Further Strengthens Partnerships and Focus on New Initiatives

TME reported its 4Q2020 results which saw revenues growing 14.3% YoY to RMB8.3bn. Despite revenues growing YoY during the quarter, TME’s OP...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili: Secondary Listing in HK Offers a Good Alternative to Kuaishou

Bilibili’s HK listing offers an alternative to Kuaishou which is currently trading at exorbitant multiples. Both companies have strong desire to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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