Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>  reported 1Q2021 results yesterday (13<sup>th</sup> May) which saw revenues growing 68.4% YoY to RMB3.9bn while operating losses for the quarter increased to 26.4% of revenues compared to 23.5% in 1Q2020. The revenue for the quarter beat consensus estimates by 3.9% while Bilibili’s operating losses for the quarter were slightly higher than consensus estimates.</p>

Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  reported 1Q2021 results yesterday (13th May) which saw revenues growing 68.4% YoY to RMB3.9bn while operating losses for the quarter increased to 26.4% of revenues compared to 23.5% in 1Q2020. The revenue for the quarter beat consensus estimates by 3.9% while Bilibili’s operating losses for the quarter were slightly higher than consensus estimates.

Bilibili 1Q2021 Results: Value-Added Services and Advertising Drive Revenue Beat

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ximalaya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33232:1" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA US)</a>, the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. </p></div><div><p>As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.</p></div><div>
<p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-positives-a-whole-lot-of-listening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-positives-a-whole-lot-of-listening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-negatives" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-negatives" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-xima-has-large-market-share-but-small-competitors-have-big-bosses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA): Has Large Market Share, But Small Competitors Have Big Bosses</a></li>
</ul>
</div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about earnings and valuation.</p></div>

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes:


 Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives
Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison
Ximalaya (XIMA): Has Large Market Share, But Small Competitors Have Big Bosses

In this note, we will talk about earnings and valuation.

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qiniu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33236:1" rel="noopener">Qiniu (QNIU US)</a> is China's leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider. Qiniu primarily offers Media Platform-as-a-Service (MPaaS) for intelligent media solutions and Data Platform-as-a-Service (DPaaS) for machine data solutions. It is China's largest pure-play PaaS provider with a 4.4% market share and China's largest independent MPaaS provider with a 7.5% market share by revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Qiniu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (17.7% of outstanding shares), Matrix Partners (8.0%) Qiming Funds (6.8%). Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>At first glance, Qiniu should be well-positioned to benefit from this sizeable China's PaaS market opportunity. The strong dollar-based net expansion rate and shift to profitability (based on the company’s adjusted EBITDA metric) and cash generation in 2020 suggests that Qiniu is heading in the right direction. However, a closer look reveals concerning developments on several fronts. In the current market where sentiment on Chinese US listings is weak, we think that the negatives in the Qiniu story warrant a pass.  </p></div>

Qiniu (QNIU US) is China's leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider. Qiniu primarily offers Media Platform-as-a-Service (MPaaS) for intelligent media solutions and Data Platform-as-a-Service (DPaaS) for machine data solutions. It is China's largest pure-play PaaS provider with a 4.4% market share and China's largest independent MPaaS provider with a 7.5% market share by revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Qiniu is backed by Alibaba Group (BABA US) (17.7% of outstanding shares), Matrix Partners (8.0%) Qiming Funds (6.8%). Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. At first glance, Qiniu should be well-positioned to benefit from this sizeable China's PaaS market opportunity. The strong dollar-based net expansion rate and shift to profitability (based on the company’s adjusted EBITDA metric) and cash generation in 2020 suggests that Qiniu is heading in the right direction. However, a closer look reveals concerning developments on several fronts. In the current market where sentiment on Chinese US listings is weak, we think that the negatives in the Qiniu story warrant a pass.  

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ximalaya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33232:1" rel="noopener">Ximalaya (XIMA US)</a>, the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. </p></div><div><p>As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.</p></div><div><p>In our previous notes,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-positives-a-whole-lot-of-listening" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening</a>, and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ximalaya-pre-ipo-the-negatives" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives</a> we have covered the positive and negative aspects of the deal.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will compare Ximalaya with some of its listed peers.</p></div>

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m average MAUs, which included 104m mobile MAUs through its apps and 146m MAUs through internet-of-things (IoT) and other third-party platforms. As per CIC, it accounted for 75% of total mobile listening time among all online audio platforms in China. It had 5.2m active content creators in 2020.In our previous notes, Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening, and  Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives we have covered the positive and negative aspects of the deal.In this note, we will compare Ximalaya with some of its listed peers.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a> is the largest independent third-party insurance platform in China as measured by life and health insurance first-year premiums (FYP) distributed in 2020, according to iResearch. Waterdrop is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>.</p></div><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $10.00-12.00 per ADS, Waterdrop will have a market cap of $4.3 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $301.6 million. New and existing shareholders have indicated on $210 million of the IPO, including Boyu Capital ($100 million), HOPU Investments (at least $80 million), and Kevin Sunny Holding ($30 million). The indications of interest represent 63.6% of the ADSs on offer at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-ipo-initiation-going-for-brokers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50610" rel="noopener">Waterdrop IPO Initiation: Going for Brokers</a>, we opined that as a leading online third-party insurance broker, Waterdrop is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. The key unknown is whether the changing regulations will throw a spanner in the works. Notwithstanding the regulatory overhang, we concluded that Waterdrop is worth a look. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full at the high-end but has some upside at the low-end. </p></div></div></div>

Waterdrop Inc (WDH US) is the largest independent third-party insurance platform in China as measured by life and health insurance first-year premiums (FYP) distributed in 2020, according to iResearch. Waterdrop is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) and Meituan (3690 HK).At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $10.00-12.00 per ADS, Waterdrop will have a market cap of $4.3 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $301.6 million. New and existing shareholders have indicated on $210 million of the IPO, including Boyu Capital ($100 million), HOPU Investments (at least $80 million), and Kevin Sunny Holding ($30 million). The indications of interest represent 63.6% of the ADSs on offer at the mid-point of the IPO price range.In Waterdrop IPO Initiation: Going for Brokers, we opined that as a leading online third-party insurance broker, Waterdrop is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. The key unknown is whether the changing regulations will throw a spanner in the works. Notwithstanding the regulatory overhang, we concluded that Waterdrop is worth a look. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full at the high-end but has some upside at the low-end. 

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili 1Q2021 Results: Value-Added Services and Advertising Drive Revenue Beat

Bilibili reported 1Q2021 results yesterday (13th May) which saw revenues growing 68.4% YoY to RMB3.9bn while operating losses for the quarter...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m...

Sumeet Singh

Qiniu IPO Initiation: A PasS

Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. We think that the several negatives in the Qiniu...

Arun George

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison

Ximalaya (XIMA US), the largest online audio platform in China, is looking to raise around US$1bn in its US listing. As of 1Q21, it had 250m MAUs...

Sumeet Singh

Waterdrop IPO: Valuation Insights

Waterdrop has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of $301.6 million at the mid-point of the price range of $10-12. The price range is full at...

Arun George

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