Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> reported 4Q2021 results last week where revenues increased 50.6% YoY to RMB 5.8bn while operating losses increased to RMB 2bn compared to RMB 903m in 4Q2020.</li>
<li>This marks the lowest YoY growth in top line since 2Q2019. Though all segments experienced YoY growth in revenue, we have observed that the growth is slowing down.</li>
<li>The company also has announced a share buyback of up to US$500m of its ADS over the next 24 months</li>
</ul>



Bilibili Inc (BILI US) reported 4Q2021 results last week where revenues increased 50.6% YoY to RMB 5.8bn while operating losses increased to RMB 2bn compared to RMB 903m in 4Q2020.
This marks the lowest YoY growth in top line since 2Q2019. Though all segments experienced YoY growth in revenue, we have observed that the growth is slowing down.
The company also has announced a share buyback of up to US$500m of its ADS over the next 24 months


Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">IQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> reported 4Q and full-year 2021 results on Tuesday. Revenue for the quarter declined 0.9% YoY to RMB7.39bn (vs consensus RMB7.31bn).</li>
<li>Operating losses for the quarter was RMB975.2m (vs consensus RMB1.33bn), about 13.2% of revenues compared to RMB1.31bn (17.5% of revenues) in 4Q2020.</li>
<li>IQiyi’s ADRs jumped 21.5% at the end of Tuesday’s close as the company mentioned that it expects quarterly non-GAAP operating break-even as soon as possible.</li>
</ul>



IQIYI Inc (IQ US) reported 4Q and full-year 2021 results on Tuesday. Revenue for the quarter declined 0.9% YoY to RMB7.39bn (vs consensus RMB7.31bn).
Operating losses for the quarter was RMB975.2m (vs consensus RMB1.33bn), about 13.2% of revenues compared to RMB1.31bn (17.5% of revenues) in 4Q2020.
IQiyi’s ADRs jumped 21.5% at the end of Tuesday’s close as the company mentioned that it expects quarterly non-GAAP operating break-even as soon as possible.


IQiyi: Huge Drop in Operating Losses Despite Flat Revenues; Path to Profits Becoming Clear

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The paying user base continued growing in 4Q21 and has space to grow further.</li>
<li>Game revenue recovered for the second quarter, as the games launched last year began to earn money.</li>
<li>BILI's advertising revenue grew significantly faster than the market size of Chinese online advertising.</li>
</ul>


The paying user base continued growing in 4Q21 and has space to grow further.
Game revenue recovered for the second quarter, as the games launched last year began to earn money.
BILI's advertising revenue grew significantly faster than the market size of Chinese online advertising.


Bilibili (BILI): 4Q21, Slow Than Expected, But Many Positive Signals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.</li>
<li>The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.</li>
<li>With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading around our fair value. Larger than expected special dividends from oil and telecom companies could provide some upside.
The HSCEI 2022/23 div steepener has dropped from -5 to -15 since our last Insight. We see further downside here and would look to add to shorts in the spread.
With rising interest rates, higher inflation, higher oil prices, a slowdown could lead to a rapid repricing of dividends and there will be opportunities to buy back the spread lower.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> share price is down more than 20.0% from Thursday’s close following announcement on new regulations for food delivery platforms.</li>
<li>New regulation states that food delivery platforms should further reduce the service fee charged from restaurants to lower operating costs for food and beverage businesses.</li>
<li>Meituan’s food delivery business makes about 88% of its revenues from commissions while the remainder comes from online marketing services.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) share price is down more than 20.0% from Thursday’s close following announcement on new regulations for food delivery platforms.
New regulation states that food delivery platforms should further reduce the service fee charged from restaurants to lower operating costs for food and beverage businesses.
Meituan’s food delivery business makes about 88% of its revenues from commissions while the remainder comes from online marketing services.


Meituan: New Regulation on Food Delivery Commission to Slowdown Growth and Delay Profits

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

Bilibili: All Things Point to Slowdown in Earnings Growth

Bilibili's share price has declined further since the company’s earnings announcement which suggests that the investors are concerned over...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

IQiyi: Huge Drop in Operating Losses Despite Flat Revenues; Path to Profits Becoming Clear

During iQiyi's 4Q2021 earnings call, the company mentioned that it expects quarterly non-GAAP operating breakeven as soon as possible. We discuss...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili (BILI): 4Q21, Slow Than Expected, But Many Positive Signals

The paying user base continued growing in 4Q21 and has space to grow further. Game revenue recovered for the second quarter. Advertising revenue...

Ming Lu

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Stay Short the 2022/23 Steepener

We see the HSCEI 2022 div futures trading in line with our estimates while there could be more downside to the 2022/23 div spread. We'd look to get...

Brian Freitas

Meituan: New Regulation on Food Delivery Commission to Slowdown Growth and Delay Profits

Meituan’s share price is down more than 20.0% following announcement on new regulations for food delivery platforms. Food delivery OPM is highly...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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