Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.</li>
<li>We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors</li>
<li>We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported  C3Q23 revenue, operating profit, and GAAP net income inline, 4.37%, (21.6%) vs. consensus. The miss was primarily due to ineffective investment in game studio and related costs.
We are bearish on BILI’s game pipeline as ACGN is already a crowded market with well-entrenched competitors
We maintain our SELL rating and cut the TP from US$ 12.3 to US$ 9.04, and consider that it is unlikely for them to breakeven in 2024


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent also declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.</li>
<li>The share distribution follows the template of the US$16bn worth of JD.com shares that Tencent paid out after its dividend announcement at the end of 2021.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal.</li>
</ul>


On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent also declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
The share distribution follows the template of the US$16bn worth of JD.com shares that Tencent paid out after its dividend announcement at the end of 2021.
In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal.


Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$20bn Overhang - Impact, Placement, Index, Other Investees

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Friday in US time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), China's MOF, and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) "agreed" on a Statement of Protocol.</li>
<li>This SoP sets the outlines for PCAOB access to inspect/investigate audit papers and accounting firms in China and HK for companies listed in the US.</li>
<li>The releases' difference in language is to be expected - different constituencies - but as PCAOB Chair Williams said, <em>“Now we will find out whether those promises hold up."</em>
</li>
</ul>


Friday in US time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), China's MOF, and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) "agreed" on a Statement of Protocol.
This SoP sets the outlines for PCAOB access to inspect/investigate audit papers and accounting firms in China and HK for companies listed in the US.
The releases' difference in language is to be expected - different constituencies - but as PCAOB Chair Williams said, “Now we will find out whether those promises hold up."



CSRC and PCAOB "Agree" On Audit Terms - Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.</li>
<li>Consensus seems to be overestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.</li>
<li>At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.</li>
</ul>


With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.
Consensus seems to be overestimating Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.
At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.


Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).</li>
<li>On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Dec 2021, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA).
On 24th Mar 2021, SEC had issued Amendments, Seeks Public Comment on HFCAA. This was a follow up on the HFCAA.
In this note, we'll talk about the final amendments and its possible timelines and implications, and a possible trade setup.


China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$20bn Overhang - Impact, Placement, Index, Other Investees

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. In this note, we look...

Sumeet Singh

CSRC and PCAOB "Agree" On Audit Terms - Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

The PCAOB and CSRC announced they had signed a Statement of Protocol which allows the PCAOB to move forward with testing whether there will be...

Travis Lundy

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

On 2nd Dec 2021, SEC issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. In this note we will talk about the final...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$9) Target Price Change]: Niche Player Faces Market Saturation

​Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$20bn Overhang - Impact, Placement, Index, Other Investees

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. In this note, we look...

Sumeet Singh

CSRC and PCAOB "Agree" On Audit Terms - Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

The PCAOB and CSRC announced they had signed a Statement of Protocol which allows the PCAOB to move forward with testing whether there will be...

Travis Lundy

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - US Tightens and HK Loosens Requirements - Long/Short Basket Trade

On 2nd Dec 2021, SEC issued Final amendments to implement the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. In this note we will talk about the final...

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili's Q3 results disappoint due to ineffective investment in game studio. Analysts are bearish on their game pipeline and maintain a SELL...