Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.</p></div><div><p>Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.</p></div><div></div><div>
<p>We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures </a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-has-its-positives-but-we-remain-unconvinced" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced</a></li>
</ul>
</div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</p></div>

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.
We have covered the deal background in our earlier notes:

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures 
Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

<p>Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.</p><p>Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.</p><p>Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.</p><p>While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.</p><p>We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. </a></p><p>In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p>

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the recent past), (ii) BFL has recently won an order from Government of India in the defence domain (non-automotive) wherein BFL will start supplying components in a month's timeframe (quantum not disclosed); (iii) BFL will be acquiring land to the tune of ~70 hectares at Khed (Maharashtra, near Pune) at an outlay of ~Rs 240 crore (over the next two to three years) wherein they intend to construct two new plants in the domain of e-mobility and defence.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the recent past), (ii) BFL has recently won an order from Government of India in the defence domain (non-automotive) wherein BFL will start supplying components in a month's timeframe (quantum not disclosed); (iii) BFL will be acquiring land to the tune of ~70 hectares at Khed (Maharashtra, near Pune) at an outlay of ~Rs 240 crore (over the next two to three years) wherein they intend to construct two new plants in the domain of e-mobility and defence.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BHARATFORG: BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the ...

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p>We maintain BUY with a revised target price of INR 860 at 34.5x FY23E EPS (vs 32x earlier) the multiple has been raised to factor in the reorganised group structure, emerging opportunities in defence and PV segments, and stronger-than-expected demand. The stock is our preferred pick in the CV segment. Key risks: delayed defence orders; any sudden lockdowns due to COVID Bharat Forges (BFL) 4QFY21 results were a significant beat with APAT coming in at INR 2.06bn (vs 0.98bn QoQ). The management is upbeat on the outlook for Class-8 trucks and expects its volume to reach 300k (+50%) in FY22E.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We maintain BUY with a revised target price of INR 860 at 34.5x FY23E EPS (vs 32x earlier) the multiple has been raised to factor in the reorganised group structure, emerging opportunities in defence and PV segments, and stronger-than-expected demand. The stock is our preferred pick in the CV segment. Key risks: delayed defence orders; any sudden lockdowns due to COVID Bharat Forges (BFL) 4QFY21 results were a significant beat with APAT coming in at INR 2.06bn (vs 0.98bn QoQ). The management is upbeat on the outlook for Class-8 trucks and expects its volume to reach 300k (+50%) in FY22E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Forge (4QFY21): Outlook upbeat; simplifying group structure. Maintain BUY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... <em>see chart below</em>. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.</p>

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

India

Bharat Forge Limited manufactures steel forgings and machined components for the automotive, diesel engine, railway, earthmoving, cement, sugar, steel, coal, ship building and oilfield industries. The Company specializes in Closed Die as well as Open Die Forgings.

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Bharat Forge (BHFC IN)

Sona Comstar IPO Trading - Strong Anchors but Tepid Demand

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

Sona Comstar aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

BHARATFORG: BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the ...

BFL said: (i) cost pressure exists on raw material and freight costs (up 3-4x in the recent past), (ii) BFL has recently won an order from...

ICICI Securities Limited

Bharat Forge (4QFY21): Outlook upbeat; simplifying group structure. Maintain BUY

We maintain BUY with a revised target price of INR 860 at 34.5x FY23E EPS (vs 32x earlier) the multiple has been raised to factor in the...

HDFC Securities

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

The evidence continues to suggest that value remains leadership and we recommend adding exposure to cyclical value on this minor pullback in the...

Vermilion Research

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