Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company</li>
<li>We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses</li>
<li>We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors</li>
</ul>


In this insight we preview J&amp;T's maiden earnings report as a listed company
We focus on revenue growth &amp; margin trends in the China &amp; SE Asia businesses
We fear slowing organic growth &amp; margin deterioration could spook investors


J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express </li>
<li>One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao</li>
<li>For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins</li>
</ul>


Recently, Yunda Holding has lost volume share to rival STO Express 
One reason could be Alibaba's transfer of its 25% stake in STO to CaiNiao
For Yunda, this dynamic adds to intense near-term pressure on margins


Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Li Auto's revenue increased by 271% YoY and vehicle deliveries increased by 296% YoY in 3Q23.</li>
<li>NIO will dismiss 10% of its employees and even 20% in some departments.</li>
<li>We do not believe Alibaba will take over the whole Best Inc.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto's revenue increased by 271% YoY and vehicle deliveries increased by 296% YoY in 3Q23.
NIO will dismiss 10% of its employees and even 20% in some departments.
We do not believe Alibaba will take over the whole Best Inc.


China Consumption Weekly (13Nov2023): Li Auto, NIO, Alibaba, Best, Meituan, KE

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds</li>
<li>Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear</li>
<li>The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process</li>
</ul>


Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds
Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear
The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.</li>
<li>Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 327m shares at HK$12 per share, which should raise proceeds of around US$501m.
Though profitability of the company’s China business has improved, SEA margins continue to decline, hence our analysis suggests that J&amp;T may not be able to generate profits in the near-term.
Our SOTP valuation offers per share value of HK$9.48 per share which is at a 21% discount to the indicative IPO price suggesting J&amp;T’s IPO is overvalued.


J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

China

BEST Inc. offers logistics and supply chain management solutions. The Company provides express and freight delivery, inventory management, warehousing, financing, cross-border supply chain, merchandise sourcing, and value-added services. BEST serves customers worldwide.

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BEST (BEST US)

J&T Global Express FY23 Earnings Preview | Revenue Growth & Margin | China, SE Asia, 'Other'

In our preview of the newly-listed express company's full-year and H223 earnings, we explain why we expect to see slowing organic revenue growth...

Tracking Traffic

Beyond ASP Declines, Additional Dynamic Undermines Yunda | We Explain Roles of STO, BABA, CaiNiao

A loss of volume share to rival STO is adding to existing margin pressure at Yunda related to declining prices. This new dynamic could be related...

Tracking Traffic

China Consumption Weekly (13Nov2023): Li Auto, NIO, Alibaba, Best, Meituan, KE

Li Auto, Revenue increased by 271% YoY and vehicle deliveries increased by 296% YoY in 3Q23. NIO will dismiss 10% of its employees. We do not...

Ming Lu

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

The transfer of Alibaba's logistics investments to CaiNiao could require billions of dollars of new funds in the short- to medium-term, potentially...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: Peer Comparison and Valuation

J&T's shares will commence trading at the HKEx on Friday, 27th October and the company's HK offering and international offering were only...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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