China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ: Kanzhun Limited: China State Council issued a series of policies to stabilize employment market.(+)</li>
<li>BILI/1024HK/3690HK: New Internet ads measures take effect since May 1(-/-/+)</li>
<li>3690 HK: RED preparing to launch group buying function (-)</li>
</ul>


BZ: Kanzhun Limited: China State Council issued a series of policies to stabilize employment market.(+)
BILI/1024HK/3690HK: New Internet ads measures take effect since May 1(-/-/+)
3690 HK: RED preparing to launch group buying function (-)


China TMT Update(Apr.28)-BZ/BILI/1024/3690HK: RED Preparing to Launch Group Buying Function (-)

<ul>
<li>3690HK / 1024HK:  Douyin launches local services partner conference (-)</li>
<li>NIO: Wait times for NIO ES7 shortened to 3 weeks (-)</li>
<li>LEGN:  Legend Bio announced positive Caltitude-4 data, raising private placement of US$200mn（/）</li>
</ul>


3690HK / 1024HK:  Douyin launches local services partner conference (-)
NIO: Wait times for NIO ES7 shortened to 3 weeks (-)
LEGN:  Legend Bio announced positive Caltitude-4 data, raising private placement of US$200mn（/）


China TMT Update (Apr.26) - 3690HK/ 1024HK/NIO/LEGN:Douyin Launches Local Services Conference

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect that Kuaishou’s 1Q23/2023 top line would be basically in line vs cons, as major business lines are recovering as macro rebounds. </li>
<li>However, we estimate that its 1Q23/2023 bottom line would still largely miss cons by (36%)/(39%), due to our concerns of increasing competition from WeChat Video Account and Douyin.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.  </li>
</ul>


We expect that Kuaishou’s 1Q23/2023 top line would be basically in line vs cons, as major business lines are recovering as macro rebounds. 
However, we estimate that its 1Q23/2023 bottom line would still largely miss cons by (36%)/(39%), due to our concerns of increasing competition from WeChat Video Account and Douyin.
Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.  


[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce &amp; livestreaming (LS) and better bottom line.</li><li>LS would continuously gain share (rev +14% YoY), boosted by faster engagement with top agencies and hosts.</li><li>We expect its other rev (ecommerce) to grow 41% YoY, with GMV largely in line (+28% YoY) and higher take rate. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce &amp; livestreaming (LS) and better bottom line.LS would continuously gain share (rev +14% YoY), boosted by faster engagement with top agencies and hosts.We expect its other rev (ecommerce) to grow 41% YoY, with GMV largely in line (+28% YoY) and higher take rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Stronger 1Q23E on better ecommerce & LS

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

China TMT Update(Apr.28)-BZ/BILI/1024/3690HK: RED Preparing to Launch Group Buying Function (-)

BZ: State Council issued policies to stabilize employment market; BILI/1024HK/3690HK: New Internet ads measures take effect since May ; 3690HK: RED...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update (Apr.26) - 3690HK/ 1024HK/NIO/LEGN:Douyin Launches Local Services Conference

3690HK/1024HK: Douyin launches local services partner conference (-)；NIO: Wait times for NIO ES7 shortened to 3 weeks (-)；LEGN: Legend Bio...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Kuaishou (1024 HK, SELL, TP HK$45) Target Price Change]: Competition Intensifies from Major Players

Maintain SELL rating and cut TP to HK$ 45 to reflect intensifying competition landscape. Our TP implies 1.8X PS/221X PE in 2023.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Stronger 1Q23E on better ecommerce & LS

Despite macro challenges and competition, we expect Kuaishou to deliver upbeat 1Q23E, with stronger ecommerce & livestreaming (LS) and better...

CMB International

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba, Tencent, Sensetime

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 14th and highlight short interest changes in Li Auto, Wuxi Bio, Baba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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