China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES：NetEase announced that the international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27</li>
<li>1024HK： Kuaishou E-commerce Platform will adjust its service fees for "Try Before You Buy" orders，which will have a positive impact on its profit（+）</li>
<li>ZTO: MOT reports weekly express parcel volume for the period ending June 25, 2023 (+/+)</li>
</ul>


NTES：NetEase announced that the international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27
1024HK： Kuaishou E-commerce Platform will adjust its service fees for "Try Before You Buy" orders，which will have a positive impact on its profit（+）
ZTO: MOT reports weekly express parcel volume for the period ending June 25, 2023 (+/+)


China TMT Update-NTES/1024.HK/ZTO: Kuaishou Raises Service Fees; Harry Potter Mobile Overseas;parcel

<ul>
<li>Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described</li>
<li>We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.</li>
</ul>


Based on our channel research, we maintain our previous estimation that the results of the 618 promotions are not as bad as some investors described
We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%, 20% and 35%, respectively.
However, it remains to be seen whether consumer spending will decline after the major promotion, possibly due to excessive consumption.


Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Sandstorms /: Cover Story: Sands of time ticking on China’s fight to hold back the desert</li><li>China-U.S. /: China and U.S. move to ratchet down tensions</li><li>Economy /: China’s cabinet proposes stronger measures to boost recovery momentum</li></ul>

Sandstorms /: Cover Story: Sands of time ticking on China’s fight to hold back the desertChina-U.S. /: China and U.S. move to ratchet down tensionsEconomy /: China’s cabinet proposes stronger measures to boost recovery momentum

CX Daily: Sands of Time Ticking on China’s Fight to Hold Back the Desert

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.</li><li>Jun would be good timing to accumulate some defensive &amp; undervalued names over a 12-month horizon, as we expect sector sentiment will be moderately boosted by: 1) 2Q23E acceleration with low base; 2) upcoming strong drama &amp; game pipeline in summer holiday; 3) solid performance for 618 promotions;; and 4) potential positive economic incentives.</li><li>We prefer SFV&amp;LFV and game subsectors, for resilience on macro uncertainty, stable competition landscape, and better margin outlook with solid growth. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.Jun would be good timing to accumulate some defensive &amp; undervalued names over a 12-month horizon, as we expect sector sentiment will be moderately boosted by: 1) 2Q23E acceleration with low base; 2) upcoming strong drama &amp; game pipeline in summer holiday; 3) solid performance for 618 promotions;; and 4) potential positive economic incentives.We prefer SFV&amp;LFV and game subsectors, for resilience on macro uncertainty, stable competition landscape, and better margin outlook with solid growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Entertainment – Embracing rich pipeline and sector mild re-rating

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.</li>
<li>During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.</li>
<li>We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.</li>
</ul>


We expect June quarter results to beat consensus and demonstrate a balanced growth across topline and bottom-line.
During a time when headlines drive BABA share price, it is more important to stay grounded in numbers, see what is in price and make trades accordingly.
We maintain US$500 billion target market cap on 20x RMB180 billion non-GAAP net profit by FY25.


Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

China TMT Update-NTES/1024.HK/ZTO: Kuaishou Raises Service Fees; Harry Potter Mobile Overseas;parcel

NetEase: international version of "Harry Potter: Magic Awakened" on June 27； Kuaishou E-commerce will adjust its service fees；ZTO: MOT reports...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Baba/JD/PDD/VIPS/Kuaishou: 618 Not as Bad as Investors Depicted, and Our Estimations of GMV Growth

We estimate that the GMV growth rates during the 618 period for Taobao+Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop, and Kuaishou are approximately 3%, 15%, 20%,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CX Daily: Sands of Time Ticking on China’s Fight to Hold Back the Desert

Sandstorms /: Cover Story: Sands of time ticking on China’s fight to hold back the desert China-U.S. /: China and U.S. move to ratchet down...

Caixin Global

China Entertainment – Embracing rich pipeline and sector mild re-rating

Although geographical tension and macro challenges are yet over, we believe most worst-case scenarios have been priced in.

CMB International

Alibaba (BABA US): Watch Headlines and Stay Grounded in Numbers

We expect Alibaba to deliver a balanced growth for June quarter results which will beat consensus. We advise investors to stay grounded in numbers...

Eric Chen

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