Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> is a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>, among others.</li>
<li>Capping of stocks at 8% of the index weight will lead to selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> at the close on 1 December, mainly from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> trackers.</li>
<li>Relative underperformance vs the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH Index</a> from now to Tuesday will require passive to sell less stock, while outperformance will lead to increased passive selling. That opens up trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is a member of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng TECH Index, among others.
Capping of stocks at 8% of the index weight will lead to selling in Xiaomi (1810 HK) at the close on 1 December, mainly from Hang Seng TECH Index trackers.
Relative underperformance vs the HSTECH Index from now to Tuesday will require passive to sell less stock, while outperformance will lead to increased passive selling. That opens up trading opportunities.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As stated in our preview notes, Kuaishou (KS) delivered upbeat margins and inline rev in 3Q23.</li><li>Looking into 4Q23E, we expect the resilient momentum to continue.</li><li>We forecast 4Q23E rev +15% YoY (largely in line), and bottom line at RMB2.8bn (9% above consensus). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

As stated in our preview notes, Kuaishou (KS) delivered upbeat margins and inline rev in 3Q23.Looking into 4Q23E, we expect the resilient momentum to continue.We forecast 4Q23E rev +15% YoY (largely in line), and bottom line at RMB2.8bn (9% above consensus). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Upbeat Margin to Continue

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Kuaishou’s 3Q2023 earnings beat consensus estimates with significant improvement to the company’s profitability driven by growth across all business segments.</li>
<li>Operating losses of the overseas segment has further reduced, and new offerings such as paid mini dramas have been driving strong growth for the company.</li>
<li>Though Kuaishou’s share price has moved up during the last few months, valuation multiples are at a steep discount to historical multiples, suggesting there is further upside.</li>
</ul>


Kuaishou’s 3Q2023 earnings beat consensus estimates with significant improvement to the company’s profitability driven by growth across all business segments.
Operating losses of the overseas segment has further reduced, and new offerings such as paid mini dramas have been driving strong growth for the company.
Though Kuaishou’s share price has moved up during the last few months, valuation multiples are at a steep discount to historical multiples, suggesting there is further upside.


Kuaishou: Strong Earnings With Further Improvement in Profitability

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 21% YoY in 3Q23, as both advertising and e-commerce expanded strongly.</li>
<li>KS achieved historical high operating margin and operating profit, as the company continue to cut all operating expenses.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 63% and a price target of HK$95. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 21% YoY in 3Q23, as both advertising and e-commerce expanded strongly.
KS achieved historical high operating margin and operating profit, as the company continue to cut all operating expenses.
We believe the stock has an upside of 63% and a price target of HK$95. Buy.


KS (Kuaishou 1024 HK): 3Q23, High Growth and Higher Margin

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.</li>
<li>Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.</li>
<li>Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.
Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.
Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.


China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

China

Kuaishou Technology operates as a content community and social platform. The Company helps users create, upload and watch short videos on mobile devices. Kuaishou Technology offers services worldwide.

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Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

There will be passive selling in Xiaomi from HSTECH trackers at the close on 1 Dec. Relative underperformance till Tuesday will lead to less...

Brian Freitas

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Upbeat Margin to Continue

As stated in our preview notes, Kuaishou (KS) delivered upbeat margins and inline rev in 3Q23. Looking into 4Q23E, we expect the resilient momentum...

CMB International

Kuaishou: Strong Earnings With Further Improvement in Profitability

Kuaishou's 3Q2023 earnings show increased profitability and growth across all segments. The company's share price has risen, but valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

KS (Kuaishou 1024 HK): 3Q23, High Growth and Higher Margin

Total revenue grew by 21% YoY in 3Q23, as advertising and e-commerce expanded strongly. KS achieved historical high operating margin and operating...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Outperformance Leads to Passive Selling & Opens Up Trading Opportunities

There will be passive selling in Xiaomi from HSTECH trackers at the close on 1 Dec. Relative underperformance till Tuesday will lead to less...

Brian Freitas

Kuaishou (1024 HK) – Upbeat Margin to Continue

As stated in our preview notes, Kuaishou (KS) delivered upbeat margins and inline rev in 3Q23. Looking into 4Q23E, we expect the resilient momentum...

CMB International

Kuaishou: Strong Earnings With Further Improvement in Profitability

​Kuaishou's 3Q2023 earnings show increased profitability and growth across all segments. The company's share price has risen, but valuation...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

KS (Kuaishou 1024 HK): 3Q23, High Growth and Higher Margin

Total revenue grew by 21% YoY in 3Q23, as advertising and e-commerce expanded strongly. KS achieved historical high operating margin and operating...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Kuaishou's 3Q2023 earnings show increased profitability and growth across all segments. The company's share price has risen, but valuation...