HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Everbright Water / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-water-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31446:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Water (1857 HK)</a> (CEW) posted impressive 35.5% rise in 1H21 net profit to HK$548m, driven by strengths across all revenue sources. Besides good increase in construction revenue as more projects are under construction, the 42.4% surge in revenue from operation is a very positive trend. A 4.5pp higher dividend payout ratio YoY suggested that management is confident on 2H21 outlook. CEW has an excellent pipeline of new waste water treatment projects, with 26 of them currently under construction and this should underpin medium-term growth. Moreover, tariff hike will be an added driver for 2H21 bottom line. In our view, there is still huge room to growth through M&amp;As and upgrade of existing projects. At just 0.4x P/B and 3.7x PER for FY21, CEW's valuations have well reflected the concerns of weak cash flow and tight financial position and we believe the current multiples have grossly undervalued the stock.

China Everbright Water (1857 HK) (CEW) posted impressive 35.5% rise in 1H21 net profit to HK$548m, driven by strengths across all revenue sources. Besides good increase in construction revenue as more projects are under construction, the 42.4% surge in revenue from operation is a very positive trend. A 4.5pp higher dividend payout ratio YoY suggested that management is confident on 2H21 outlook. CEW has an excellent pipeline of new waste water treatment projects, with 26 of them currently under construction and this should underpin medium-term growth. Moreover, tariff hike will be an added driver for 2H21 bottom line. In our view, there is still huge room to growth through M&amp;As and upgrade of existing projects. At just 0.4x P/B and 3.7x PER for FY21, CEW's valuations have well reflected the concerns of weak cash flow and tight financial position and we believe the current multiples have grossly undervalued the stock.

China Everbright Water (1857 HK): Post 1H21 Call - Strengths Will Sustain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hscei-june-2021-index-rebalance-preview-three-adds-four-deletes-possible" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast</a>.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> was widely expected to be included but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a>, the stock could outperform till implementation date.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 3 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are BYD (1211 HK) and Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), while Guangdong Investment (270 HK), China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) and China Tower (788 HK) have been deleted from the index. This is exactly in line with our forecast.One-way turnover is estimated at 8.37% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$5.98bn. The largest passive inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) as a result of the capping change from 5% to 8%, while the largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and China Tower (788 HK).There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes and there should be some impact on the stocks even though the changes were largely expected (at least by us). BYD (1211 HK) was widely expected to be included but Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) was not on everyone's list. With 4 days ADV to buy on Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), the stock could outperform till implementation date. 

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

Evergrande Property Services / Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.The review period for the June review ended on 31 March and stocks that had at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> will be a Fast Entry inclusion into the index at the close of trading on 8 April and no stock will be deleted on that date.At the June review, we see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and being included in the index, and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> being deleted from the index.There is a slightly lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> being included in the index and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK)</a> being excluded.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a>.The June review also sees a change in the index methodology where all stocks will be capped at 8% of the index weight.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 21 May. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 June.The review period for the June review ended on 31 March and stocks that had at least 1 month of trading history by that date are eligible for inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).Baidu (9888 HK) will be a Fast Entry inclusion into the index at the close of trading on 8 April and no stock will be deleted on that date.At the June review, we see a high probability of Evergrande Auto (708 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) and being included in the index, and of China Tower (788 HK), Guangdong Investment (270 HK) and China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) being deleted from the index.There is a slightly lower probability of Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) being included in the index and of Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd H (914 HK) being excluded.Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK).The June review also sees a change in the index methodology where all stocks will be capped at 8% of the index weight.

HSCEI June 2021 Index Rebalance Preview - Three Adds, Four Deletes Possible

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

The launch of HKEX's Sustainable and Green Exchange (STAGE) is a big deal. It is not about near-term earnings upside. You can forget about that. The real story is twofold: 1) substantial medium-term value creation with little risk, and 2) HKEX taking a decisive lead in its "sustainable stock exchange race" with SGX, as HKEX is now Asia's leader-apparent of sustainable, green, social, and ESG capital markets.<hr>Plans are just plans until executed. Technically, the STAGE initiative is still just a plan according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> itself. Perhaps, but it's an understatement. STAGE seems well-considered, and well on the path to execution. Granted, nothing is in the bank yet. But it is too momentous – for HKEX, investors, and sustainable/ESG investing in Asia – to simply discount this as mere aspiration.HKEX hasn't yet shared enough detail to thoroughly model this so until then I am sticking to what we do know. For now, my bullish imperative is simple: many positives, no negatives. One caveat is that STAGE won't boost the bottom line for a while. This really feels more like "long-term bullish," but that's not an option – it's either bullish or bearish, and there is nothing bearish about this.Once STAGE is phased-in – i.e., multiple asset classes and investment products, plus the synergies that come with breadth and depth – it could be of substantial value. In the interim, both HKEX and investors will be amassing intangible value; a veritable fortune in goodwill fit for a newly-crowned market leader. HKEX isn't wearing a crown or on a throne just yet, but the STAGE is set. Here are the salient summary points regarding STAGE and my thesis:<ul>
<li>STAGE will be a hub for data and information about sustainable investing and finance in Asia</li>
<li>For investors, it will simplify research, due diligence, and monitoring of "green" investments</li>
<li>For issuers, STAGE will offer product visibility to an investor audience with aligned interests</li>
<li>The first phase (targeted for year-end) will focus on qualifying HKEX-listed bonds, and ETPs</li>
<li>HKEX is poised to lead Asia (Nasdaq and LuxSE initiatives are different and globally-focused) </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> and HKEX are still in a dead heat for Asia's most sustainable exchange, for now</li>
</ul>

The launch of HKEX's Sustainable and Green Exchange (STAGE) is a big deal. It is not about near-term earnings upside. You can forget about that. The real story is twofold: 1) substantial medium-term value creation with little risk, and 2) HKEX taking a decisive lead in its "sustainable stock exchange race" with SGX, as HKEX is now Asia's leader-apparent of sustainable, green, social, and ESG capital markets.Plans are just plans until executed. Technically, the STAGE initiative is still just a plan according to HKEX (388 HK) itself. Perhaps, but it's an understatement. STAGE seems well-considered, and well on the path to execution. Granted, nothing is in the bank yet. But it is too momentous – for HKEX, investors, and sustainable/ESG investing in Asia – to simply discount this as mere aspiration.HKEX hasn't yet shared enough detail to thoroughly model this so until then I am sticking to what we do know. For now, my bullish imperative is simple: many positives, no negatives. One caveat is that STAGE won't boost the bottom line for a while. This really feels more like "long-term bullish," but that's not an option – it's either bullish or bearish, and there is nothing bearish about this.Once STAGE is phased-in – i.e., multiple asset classes and investment products, plus the synergies that come with breadth and depth – it could be of substantial value. In the interim, both HKEX and investors will be amassing intangible value; a veritable fortune in goodwill fit for a newly-crowned market leader. HKEX isn't wearing a crown or on a throne just yet, but the STAGE is set. Here are the salient summary points regarding STAGE and my thesis:
STAGE will be a hub for data and information about sustainable investing and finance in Asia
For investors, it will simplify research, due diligence, and monitoring of "green" investments
For issuers, STAGE will offer product visibility to an investor audience with aligned interests
The first phase (targeted for year-end) will focus on qualifying HKEX-listed bonds, and ETPs
HKEX is poised to lead Asia (Nasdaq and LuxSE initiatives are different and globally-focused) 

SGX (SGX SP) and HKEX are still in a dead heat for Asia's most sustainable exchange, for now


HKEX's Sustainable and Green Exchange Is a Great Plan With Huge Potential, Now It's Time to Execute

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-envirotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36:1" rel="noopener">Citic Envirotech (CEL SP)</a> is a leading membrane-based integrated environmental solutions provider specialising in water and wastewater treatment, water supply and recycling. On 6 November, CKM announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer at S$0.55 per share. The Circular was released on Monday and the EGM to approve the privatisation will be held on 31 December.<div class="content-highlight">In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/citic-envirotech-privatisation-offer-s-targeted-appeal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous note</a>, we stated that our valuation analysis suggests that CKM’s offer while not a knockout bid, is worth a look for investors not willing to wait around for recovery and seeking a reasonable exit. Our view is that the IFA report is far from convincing and investors willing to take a long-term view have reasonable grounds to reject the offer. </div>

Citic Envirotech (CEL SP) is a leading membrane-based integrated environmental solutions provider specialising in water and wastewater treatment, water supply and recycling. On 6 November, CKM announced a pre-conditional privatisation offer at S$0.55 per share. The Circular was released on Monday and the EGM to approve the privatisation will be held on 31 December.In our previous note, we stated that our valuation analysis suggests that CKM’s offer while not a knockout bid, is worth a look for investors not willing to wait around for recovery and seeking a reasonable exit. Our view is that the IFA report is far from convincing and investors willing to take a long-term view have reasonable grounds to reject the offer. 

CITIC Envirotech: Thoughts on the IFA Report

Hong Kong

Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops water treatment systems.  The Group specializes in water services and environmental protection businesses, with waste water treatment as its core business segment.

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Beijing Enterprises Water Group (371 HK)

China Everbright Water (1857 HK): Post 1H21 Call - Strengths Will Sustain

After posting solid 1H21 net profit, China Everbright Water will continue to see good prospects into 2H21. New project completion, higher tariff...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCEI Index Rebalance: BYD's Double Inclusion; Capping Changes Lead to High Turnover

The 2 adds and 3 deletes for the HSCEI are just what we expected. BYD is an inclusion in the HSI too and could move higher over the next 2 weeks....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI June 2021 Index Rebalance Preview - Three Adds, Four Deletes Possible

We forecast 3 inclusions and 4 exclusions from the HSCEI at the June review. Along with capping changes, we estimate a one-way turnover of 9.75%....

Brian Freitas

HKEX's Sustainable and Green Exchange Is a Great Plan With Huge Potential, Now It's Time to Execute

The launch of HKEX's Sustainable and Green Exchange (STAGE) is a big deal. It is not about near-term earnings upside. You can forget about that....

Kyle Rudden

CITIC Envirotech: Thoughts on the IFA Report

Citic Envirotech (CEL SP) is a leading membrane-based integrated environmental solutions provider specialising in water and wastewater treatment,...

Arun George

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