HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.</li>
<li>There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.</li>
<li>YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>, we wouldn't be too surprised.</li>
</ul>


Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn't be too surprised.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

<ul>
<li>Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.</li>
<li>Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.</li>
<li>HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.</li>
</ul>


Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.
Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.
HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>981HK: Huawei Wuhu Supercomputing Center opens services, which benefits SMIC. (/)</li>
<li>LKNCY US: Cotti Coffee Changes Product Formulas and Supply Chain, Ramps up Promotion for Fruit Coffee (-)</li>
<li>BGNE US: AstraZeneca Calquence Phase III results set up competition for BeiGene's Zanubrutinib</li>
</ul>


981HK: Huawei Wuhu Supercomputing Center opens services, which benefits SMIC. (/)
LKNCY US: Cotti Coffee Changes Product Formulas and Supply Chain, Ramps up Promotion for Fruit Coffee (-)
BGNE US: AstraZeneca Calquence Phase III results set up competition for BeiGene's Zanubrutinib


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981HK/LKNCY US/BGNE US

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

New Oriental Education & Techn / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see two ADDs and two DELs.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2024.
Based on the current data, I see two ADDs and two DELs.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;</li>
<li>Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; </li>
<li>However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


As Chinese population ages, healthcare is a major source of consumption. Yet we are the most pessimistic for it to become a pillar of consumption;
Low healthcare spending in China is achieved by underpaying doctors and nurses. Enhancing life quality, instead of only curing disease, can meaningfully improve consumption; 
However, consumer healthcare begets a larger and more common economic phenomenon, which is underpricing. The issue of underpricing stems from low compliance cost, in our opinion.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited researches, develops, and commercializes biological products.  The Company provides treatment for hepatitis and offers a line of vaccine products including hepatitis vaccines and rubella vaccines.

Beijing Tiantan Biological Products (600161 CH)

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

Hualan Biological Engineering Inc. produces and markets human serum albumin (HSA), gamma globulin, frozen prothrombin (PCC), and other related biological products.

Hualan Biological Engineering (002007 CH)

Walvax Biotechnology Company Limited develops, manufactures and sells bio-pharmaceutical vaccination products.  The Company's products include haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine and meningococcal group A,C bivalent polysaccharide conjugate vaccine.

Jiangxi Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical company Limited develops, produces and sells blood product. The Company's main products include human serum albumin, intravenous immunoglobulin (static C) and fibrinogen.

Jiangxi Boya Bio Pharmaceutical (300294 CH)

Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. operates biological product manufacturing businesses. The Company produces biological vaccines and other vaccine products. Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products conducts businesses in China.

Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Pr (300601 CH)

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

Zai Lab Limited operates as a bio-pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops therapeutic technology for antibody-based oncology, autoimmune, and infectious diseases treatments. Zai Lab also manufactures drugs in the form of capsules, injections, and liquids. Zai Lab serves patients worldwide.

BGI Genomics Co., Ltd offers researching and testing services. The Company provides deoxyribonucleic acid sequencing, food science, health care researching, cancer prevention, drug discovery, and DNA sequencing. BGI Genomics offers services to medical and scientific research institutions worldwide.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. develops and commercializes therapeutic enzyme products.  The Company has applied its proprietary enzyme technology to develop products for lysosomal storage diseases and for the treatment of serious burns. BioMarin's subsidiary provides analytical and diagnostic products and services in the area of carbohydrate biology.

Insmed, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel, targeted inhaled therapies for patients with high unmet need battling serious orphan lung diseases.

United Therapeutics Corporation develops pharmaceuticals to treat vascular diseases such as pulmonary hypertension and peripheral vascular disease.  The Company's lead products are stable synthetic forms of prostacyclin and are delivered orally or subcutaneously.

Natera, Inc. operates as a diagnostics company. The Company provides preconception and prenatal genetic testing services. Natera also offers pre-implantation genetic diagnosis, aneuploidy screening, translocation, and single gene testing services.

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics for neuropsychiatric, neuroinflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders.  The Company is developing therapeutic interventions for anxiety, depression, Alzheimer's disease, insomnia, stroke, malignant brain tumors, multiple sclerosis, obesity, and diabetes.

Alteogen Inc. is a pharmaceutical research company.  The Company researches and develops bio-medicines such as bio-better and bio-similar.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of unique RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of both rare and infectious diseases. The Company offers its products to the medical industry in countries around the world.

Incyte Corp is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company discovers, develops and commercializes proprietary small molecule drugs, primarily used in oncology.

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company creates and develops human antibody products for the treatment of life threatening and debilitating diseases. Genmab focuses on products to treat cancer, rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions, and psoriasis. The Company develops new products through partnerships. Genmab operates in Europe and the United States.

Genmab A/S operates as a biotechnology company. The Company specializes in development of antibody therapeutics for the treatment of cancer. Genmab serves customers worldwide.

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

HUTCHMED’s 2024 full-year sales may once again exceed expectations. It's time to recalculate the peak sales of pipeline and the Company’s outlook....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981HK/LKNCY US/BGNE US

Huawei's new supercomputing center benefits SMIC; Cotti Coffee changes formulas; AstraZeneca's results pose competition for BeiGene.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

JD Logistics and SenseTime are currently ranked 65th and 64th respectively and we see them as expected DELs. We see PICC Property & Casualty and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

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China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

​Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

HUTCHMED’s 2024 full-year sales may once again exceed expectations. It's time to recalculate the peak sales of pipeline and the Company’s outlook....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981HK/LKNCY US/BGNE US

​Huawei's new supercomputing center benefits SMIC; Cotti Coffee changes formulas; AstraZeneca's results pose competition for BeiGene.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Two Changes Possible; US$256mn One-Way

JD Logistics and SenseTime are currently ranked 65th and 64th respectively and we see them as expected DELs. We see PICC Property & Casualty and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part III

China's healthcare system is supply efficient, which leads to underpaying the healthcare professionals' service but overmedicates. To change,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

Huawei's new supercomputing center benefits SMIC; Cotti Coffee changes formulas; AstraZeneca's results pose competition for BeiGene.