HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With the gradual marketing of biological drugs, almost all of the world's top ten blockbuster drugs were dominated by biological drugs. From the global total sales of blockbuster drugs announced in 2020, the top three were AbbVie's Humira ($19,832 million sales in 2020), Merck’s Keytruda ($14,380 million sales in 2020) and BMS’s Revlimid ($12,106 million sales in 2020). Throughout the world, biological drugs have become the main direction of future development. In China, domestic pharmaceutical enterprises have also laid out biological drug products in their pipelines. The following mainly analyzed the development situation and investment opportunities in this market.

With the gradual marketing of biological drugs, almost all of the world's top ten blockbuster drugs were dominated by biological drugs. From the global total sales of blockbuster drugs announced in 2020, the top three were AbbVie's Humira ($19,832 million sales in 2020), Merck’s Keytruda ($14,380 million sales in 2020) and BMS’s Revlimid ($12,106 million sales in 2020). Throughout the world, biological drugs have become the main direction of future development. In China, domestic pharmaceutical enterprises have also laid out biological drug products in their pipelines. The following mainly analyzed the development situation and investment opportunities in this market. 

Industry Report - Insights on China Biological Drug Market

Equity Bottom-Up

Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

In the first quarter of 2021, following the failure of the BAT8001 phase III clinical trial, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a> announced the suspension of R&amp;D of two other projects in the pipeline, BAT8003 and BAT1306. It is estimated that Bio-Thera has invested about RMB340 million in these three projects. Currently, Bio-Thera has only one product (Qletli) on the market. In the financial reports of 2020, the revenue was RMB185 million and Qletli contributed about RMB183 million, almost the entire revenue of the Company. Meanwhile, the net loss in 2020 was RMB513 million, and the Company has been suffering from losses for five consecutive years. So, what's next for Bio-Thera after R&amp;D setbacks and years of losses?

In the first quarter of 2021, following the failure of the BAT8001 phase III clinical trial, Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH) announced the suspension of R&amp;D of two other projects in the pipeline, BAT8003 and BAT1306. It is estimated that Bio-Thera has invested about RMB340 million in these three projects. Currently, Bio-Thera has only one product (Qletli) on the market. In the financial reports of 2020, the revenue was RMB185 million and Qletli contributed about RMB183 million, almost the entire revenue of the Company. Meanwhile, the net loss in 2020 was RMB513 million, and the Company has been suffering from losses for five consecutive years. So, what's next for Bio-Thera after R&amp;D setbacks and years of losses?

Bio-Thera Solutions (688177.CH) - What's Next for Bio-Thera After R&D Setbacks and Years of Losses?

Last week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a>'s core product RC18 has received conditional marketing approval in China for the treatment of SLE. RC18 is the first domestic innovative drug for the treatment of SLE approved for marketing in China in more than 60 years, with excellent therapeutic effect and is expected to fill the treatment gap. In addition, the Company officially launched its A-share IPO plan and is expected to list on the SSE STAR Market. The good news was also reflected in the stock price, in the last three trading days, the stock price of RemeGen increased by nearly 25%.

Last week, Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)'s core product RC18 has received conditional marketing approval in China for the treatment of SLE. RC18 is the first domestic innovative drug for the treatment of SLE approved for marketing in China in more than 60 years, with excellent therapeutic effect and is expected to fill the treatment gap. In addition, the Company officially launched its A-share IPO plan and is expected to list on the SSE STAR Market. The good news was also reflected in the stock price, in the last three trading days, the stock price of RemeGen increased by nearly 25%. 

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) - Commercialized RC18 + IPO On SSE STAR Market = New Chapter & Challenges

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-searching-for-the-next-big-thing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49043" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing</a>, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. <div class="content-highlight">In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.</div>

Baidu (BIDU US) launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Recently, there is news that insulin could be included in the volume-based purchase (VBP).</li>
<li>With the continuous improvement of the innovation capability of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and the gradual recognition by foreign enterprises, "going global" has gradually become a common way in the domestic pharmaceutical industry.</li>
<li>As the residents' medical expenses continue to increase, commercial health insurance has become an important part to relieve the pressure of medical insurance fund.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the new agreement and updated progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luye-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:488:1" rel="noopener">Luye Pharma (2186 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a>.3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 3.7%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.21% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
Recently, there is news that insulin could be included in the volume-based purchase (VBP).
With the continuous improvement of the innovation capability of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and the gradual recognition by foreign enterprises, "going global" has gradually become a common way in the domestic pharmaceutical industry.
As the residents' medical expenses continue to increase, commercial health insurance has become an important part to relieve the pressure of medical insurance fund.
2. Company news:News about the new agreement and updated progress of new drugs from Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK), Luye Pharma (2186 HK) and Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 3.7%, while CSI 300 decreased 2.21% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

Industry Report - Insights on China Biological Drug Market

The article analyzed China biological drug market in terms of monoclonal antibody, bispecific antibody,ADC,domestic application to NMPA and also...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Bio-Thera Solutions (688177.CH) - What's Next for Bio-Thera After R&D Setbacks and Years of Losses?

The article analyzed the concerns after the suspension of R&D of its three core products, the challenges of its listed product Qletli,and also the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) - Commercialized RC18 + IPO On SSE STAR Market = New Chapter & Challenges

The article analyzed RemeGen's first commericalized product RC18, the challenges in R&D failure, fierce competition, commercialization and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.12)

The article analyzed viewpoints of potential VBP on insulin, internationalization of domestic pharmaceutical companies, commercial health...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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Industry Report - Insights on China Biological Drug Market

The article analyzed China biological drug market in terms of monoclonal antibody, bispecific antibody,ADC,domestic application to NMPA and also...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Bio-Thera Solutions (688177.CH) - What's Next for Bio-Thera After R&D Setbacks and Years of Losses?

The article analyzed the concerns after the suspension of R&D of its three core products, the challenges of its listed product Qletli,and also the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) - Commercialized RC18 + IPO On SSE STAR Market = New Chapter & Challenges

The article analyzed RemeGen's first commericalized product RC18, the challenges in R&D failure, fierce competition, commercialization and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.12)

The article analyzed viewpoints of potential VBP on insulin, internationalization of domestic pharmaceutical companies, commercial health...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views