HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AbbVie's patent infringement allegations against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> is an attempt to obstruct BeiGene through legal means and save Imbruvica’s sales decline in the market. AbbVie came prepared this time.</li>
<li>BeiGene has a chance to win the lawsuit if without any political factors.But if BeiGene fails to walk away unscathed, any damages/patent royalty would be detrimental to its financial performance/forecast.</li>
<li>The real key point in determining BeiGene's future turnaround is not this lawsuit, but the clinical results of TIGIT project. Even with the correction since May, BeiGene is still expensive.</li>
</ul>


AbbVie's patent infringement allegations against BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) is an attempt to obstruct BeiGene through legal means and save Imbruvica’s sales decline in the market. AbbVie came prepared this time.
BeiGene has a chance to win the lawsuit if without any political factors.But if BeiGene fails to walk away unscathed, any damages/patent royalty would be detrimental to its financial performance/forecast.
The real key point in determining BeiGene's future turnaround is not this lawsuit, but the clinical results of TIGIT project. Even with the correction since May, BeiGene is still expensive.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) - AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. </li>
<li>BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)</li>
<li>002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)</li>
</ul>


700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. 
BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)
002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)


China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. 


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

Shanghai Bio-Heart Biological Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There are three main ways for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to enter global markets, but the results are completely different. Investors are advised to make cautious judgments based on different cases. </li>
<li>Speed is a crucial factor in the competition for drug development, but there’re precedents in history that late-comers are still able to turn things around, such as GLP-1/weight loss drugs.</li>
<li>We remain conservative about the future commercialization performance of Bio-Heart's BRS and Iberis 2nd. However, the product launch is a catalyst for share price, which provides a good short-term trade opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are three main ways for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to enter global markets, but the results are completely different. Investors are advised to make cautious judgments based on different cases. 
Speed is a crucial factor in the competition for drug development, but there’re precedents in history that late-comers are still able to turn things around, such as GLP-1/weight loss drugs.
We remain conservative about the future commercialization performance of Bio-Heart's BRS and Iberis 2nd. However, the product launch is a catalyst for share price, which provides a good short-term trade opportunity.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.12) - Three Globalization Strategies, GLP-1/Weight Loss Drug, Bio-Heart

<ul>
<li>BeiGene (BGNE) reported C1Q23 top line 7% and gross margin 1.5ppt above our estimates, leading to non-GAA operating loss 23% narrower than our estimate. </li>
<li>We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. </li>
<li>With transition to a biopharma complete, BGNE should enjoy a higher multiple; We raised TP from US$219 to US$254 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene (BGNE) reported C1Q23 top line 7% and gross margin 1.5ppt above our estimates, leading to non-GAA operating loss 23% narrower than our estimate. 
We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. 
With transition to a biopharma complete, BGNE should enjoy a higher multiple; We raised TP from US$219 to US$254 and maintain BUY.


[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Valuation Adjustment Can Drive the Stock Upside

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) - AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

AbbVie clearly felt more pressure in front of Brukinsa. It's common to use legal means to hinder competitor. BeiGene has a chance to win the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started beta test；BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May.12) - Three Globalization Strategies, GLP-1/Weight Loss Drug, Bio-Heart

There're three ways for companies to enter global markets, but the results are different.Late-comers can still turn things around, such as GLP-1...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Valuation Adjustment Can Drive the Stock Upside

We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. We raised TP from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US) - AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined

AbbVie clearly felt more pressure in front of Brukinsa. It's common to use legal means to hinder competitor. BeiGene has a chance to win the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started beta test；BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May.12) - Three Globalization Strategies, GLP-1/Weight Loss Drug, Bio-Heart

There're three ways for companies to enter global markets, but the results are different.Late-comers can still turn things around, such as GLP-1...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Valuation Adjustment Can Drive the Stock Upside

We raise BRUKINSA’s peak year sales from US$5bn to US$5.8bn while cutting Tislelizumab’s peak sales from US$1.5bn to US$1.2bn. We raised TP from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) - AbbVie‘s Patent Infringement Allegations Are Not as Simple as Imagined