External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong sales growth continued in 4Q22, mainly driven by zanubrutinib.</li><li>In 4Q22, BeiGene recorded US$339mn product sales (-3% QoQ, +72% YoY).</li><li>Zanubrutinib (BTK) maintained a strong sales momentum, with sales increasing +13% QoQ or +101% YoY to US$176mn in 4Q22, driven by the overseas sales (especially in the US). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong sales growth continued in 4Q22, mainly driven by zanubrutinib.In 4Q22, BeiGene recorded US$339mn product sales (-3% QoQ, +72% YoY).Zanubrutinib (BTK) maintained a strong sales momentum, with sales increasing +13% QoQ or +101% YoY to US$176mn in 4Q22, driven by the overseas sales (especially in the US). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Expect strong sales in 2023 driven by the US approval of zanubrutinib in CLL

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’s no need to imagine that biotech can cover each hospital department/each field comprehensively just like Innovent/BeiGene has done in PD-1 era, which is the dividend of a special era.</li>
<li>When PD-1 sales are gradually approaching the ceiling, the extra or fewer several hundred million yuan of PD-1 sold by Innovent wouldn’t have a fundamental impact on its market value.</li>
<li>IBI362 would be a product at billions level,which means revenue would be doubled. It takes time for Innovent to turn losses into profits,but sales forecast of RMB10 billion is achievable.</li>
</ul>


There’s no need to imagine that biotech can cover each hospital department/each field comprehensively just like Innovent/BeiGene has done in PD-1 era, which is the dividend of a special era.
When PD-1 sales are gradually approaching the ceiling, the extra or fewer several hundred million yuan of PD-1 sold by Innovent wouldn’t have a fundamental impact on its market value.
IBI362 would be a product at billions level,which means revenue would be doubled. It takes time for Innovent to turn losses into profits,but sales forecast of RMB10 billion is achievable.


Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Time to Enter the Next Stage After the Dividend of Special Era Ends

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab sales in China; </li>
<li>While China growth does appear to be a drag, international sales is robust and has potential. Consensus is also reasonable with gross margin having upside;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$225 to US$219 and maintain BUY. Reliance on international sales heightens BGNE’s political risk.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab sales in China; 
While China growth does appear to be a drag, international sales is robust and has potential. Consensus is also reasonable with gross margin having upside;
We cut TP from US$225 to US$219 and maintain BUY. Reliance on international sales heightens BGNE’s political risk.


[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Non-China Growth Drives the Biz…Maintain BUY

<ul>
<li>It’s “a wise decision” to out-license CMG901 and receive cashflow in advance so as to focus on more important late-stage products.Keymed’s management is as pragmatic as ever in strategic choices.</li>
<li>Biotech would find it difficult to promote products by themselves and has to cooperate with Big Pharma to open domestic/foreign markets. But many investors are still “living in the illusion”.</li>
<li>There would be more BD deals in the future. Our view on Keymed's valuation remains unchanged - Market cap about RMB8 billion to RMB1.6 billion is the reasonable range. </li>
</ul>


It’s “a wise decision” to out-license CMG901 and receive cashflow in advance so as to focus on more important late-stage products.Keymed’s management is as pragmatic as ever in strategic choices.
Biotech would find it difficult to promote products by themselves and has to cooperate with Big Pharma to open domestic/foreign markets. But many investors are still “living in the illusion”.
There would be more BD deals in the future. Our view on Keymed's valuation remains unchanged - Market cap about RMB8 billion to RMB1.6 billion is the reasonable range. 


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The $1.2B Deal with AstraZeneca for ADC and the Logic Behind

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 27th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Li Ning, Ccb, Beigene, Hworld, Hutchmed.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 27th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Li Ning, Ccb, Beigene, Hworld, Hutchmed.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Ning, Ccb, Beigene, Hworld, Hutchmed

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (BGNE US)

BeiGene (BGNE US) – Expect strong sales in 2023 driven by the US approval of zanubrutinib in CLL

Strong sales growth continued in 4Q22, mainly driven by zanubrutinib. In 4Q22, BeiGene recorded US$339mn product sales (-3% QoQ, +72% YoY).

CMB International

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Time to Enter the Next Stage After the Dividend of Special Era Ends

Innovent successfully caught the biggest/most precious PD-1 opportunity, but its sales are slowing down. We think sales forecast of RMB10 billion...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[BeiGene, LTD. (BGNE US) Target Price Change]: Non-China Growth Drives the Biz…Maintain BUY

BeiGene (BGNE) reported C4Q22 top line missing our estimate by 13%. Main reason for the miss is weaker than expected BRUKINSA and Tislelizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The $1.2B Deal with AstraZeneca for ADC and the Logic Behind

It’s wise decision for Keymed to out-license CMG901 and receive cashflow in advance due to uncertainties.Biotech has to rely on Big Pharma in post...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Short Interest Weekly: Li Ning, Ccb, Beigene, Hworld, Hutchmed

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 27th and highlight short interest changes in Li Ning, Ccb, Beigene,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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