Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Law /In Depth: Why fewer criminal appeals cases are getting heard in China</li><li>BRICS /: BRICS invites six nations to join as expansion moves into focus</li><li>Nuclear /: China suspends imports of all Japanese aquatic products</li></ul>

Law /In Depth: Why fewer criminal appeals cases are getting heard in ChinaBRICS /: BRICS invites six nations to join as expansion moves into focusNuclear /: China suspends imports of all Japanese aquatic products

CX Daily: Why Fewer Criminal Appeals Cases Are Getting Heard in China

<p>It is not likely that China’s banks will fully conceal the impact of the crisis. Even if there is some forbearance, we would expect some flow through in the numbers. This can take many forms including lower asset yields, lesser fee income and oversized credit growth. Even with credit costs, bad loans or special mention loans, we are doubtful of a complete white-wash. Part of this is also due to the more strict and onerous bank and accounting regulations now compared with the past. </p>

It is not likely that China’s banks will fully conceal the impact of the crisis. Even if there is some forbearance, we would expect some flow through in the numbers. This can take many forms including lower asset yields, lesser fee income and oversized credit growth. Even with credit costs, bad loans or special mention loans, we are doubtful of a complete white-wash. Part of this is also due to the more strict and onerous bank and accounting regulations now compared with the past. 

China Banks – Do Not Expect Full Concealment of Crisis

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers, First Pac, Toshiba, Nissan, Entertainment One, Huaneng Renew

<p>While only few of China’s banks have reported 1Q19 results, there is a discernable pattern suggestive of worsening credit metrics. We also must recognize that any IFRS 9 distortions during last year when comparing with the year before, will not be a feature of numbers in 1Q19 or any future quarters. Anecdotally we know there is a worsening in credit conditions, with a recent press article well highlighting rising cross-defaults in China (<a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3007516/china-economy-faces-threat-obscure-financial-tool-could" target="_blank">See SCMP on 25 April</a>). This will show up in bank's reported figures, if not in higher NPLs, at least in terms of higher credit costs. </p>

While only few of China’s banks have reported 1Q19 results, there is a discernable pattern suggestive of worsening credit metrics. We also must recognize that any IFRS 9 distortions during last year when comparing with the year before, will not be a feature of numbers in 1Q19 or any future quarters. Anecdotally we know there is a worsening in credit conditions, with a recent press article well highlighting rising cross-defaults in China (See SCMP on 25 April). This will show up in bank's reported figures, if not in higher NPLs, at least in terms of higher credit costs. 

China

Bank of Beijing Company Ltd. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers short-, medium- and long-term loans, insurance, foreign exchange, international settlement, government bonds, and other products and services.

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Bank Of Beijing Co Ltd A (601169 CH)

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

CX Daily: Why Fewer Criminal Appeals Cases Are Getting Heard in China

Law /In Depth: Why fewer criminal appeals cases are getting heard in China BRICS /: BRICS invites six nations to join as expansion moves into...

Caixin Global

China Banks – Do Not Expect Full Concealment of Crisis

It is not likely that China’s banks will fully conceal the impact of the crisis. Even if there is some forbearance, we would expect some flow...

Daniel Tabbush

Last Week in Event SPACE: Naspers, First Pac, Toshiba, Nissan, Entertainment One, Huaneng Renew

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Naspers (NPN SJ) appears to have baked in most of the upside from the Prosus (PRX NA) spin-off. Near-term there...

David Blennerhassett

China Banks - A Pattern

While only few of China’s banks have reported 1Q19 results, there is a discernable pattern suggestive of worsening credit metrics. We also must...

Daniel Tabbush

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