Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon.

*Capital Raise Coming:Without any detail whatsoever, on March 10, 2021, the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MOSOE) announced that Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) [BBNI] will seek a rights offering sometime in 2022; and*Big Dilution Expected Given Awful Credit Metrics:BBNI’s stated capital levels are low by sector comparison at a 16.8% CAR. Net new NPLs have increased 206.0% on an annualized basis – the absolute worst we have witnessed regionally this quarter. We calculate a minimum loss reserve shortfall of IDR 29.7 tn which represents 28% of stated capital – intimating a significant capital is on the horizon. 

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> latest numbers were interesting in that there was evidence of declining provisions, which suggests improving credit quality ahead but what was also evident was the renewed momentum behind micro and ultra-micro loans, which now make up more than 40% of total loans but it aims for 45% by 2025.
Microlending and MSMEs are the bank's key differentiating factor and core competency versus its peers. It a skill-set that they have not been able to replicate, despite best efforts by some in recent years.  It is increasingly the champion of financial inclusion in Indonesia.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> has re-affirmed its focus on driving continued digitalization as a growth driver, which is enabling the bank to continue to expand with lower costs, even in rural areas. 
The bank continues to increase its commitment to implement ESG practices with 63.9% of the total loan portfolio classified as financing for sustainable business activities in 2020. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> was also the first bank in Southeast Asia to issue sustainability bonds in 2019. The sustainability bond market has become more attractive and it's projected that the ESG financing instrument will reach USD11tn in 2025. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> is also building digital partnerships and collaborations with P2P players, e-commerce platforms, and ride-hailing firms. 
<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> remains one of our top picks amongst the Indonesian banks, with its renewed focus on its core competency in microlending, as well as its meaningful digitalization of existing banking business as well as increasingly using digital channels to expand its reach.
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Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) latest numbers were interesting in that there was evidence of declining provisions, which suggests improving credit quality ahead but what was also evident was the renewed momentum behind micro and ultra-micro loans, which now make up more than 40% of total loans but it aims for 45% by 2025.
Microlending and MSMEs are the bank's key differentiating factor and core competency versus its peers. It a skill-set that they have not been able to replicate, despite best efforts by some in recent years.  It is increasingly the champion of financial inclusion in Indonesia.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) has re-affirmed its focus on driving continued digitalization as a growth driver, which is enabling the bank to continue to expand with lower costs, even in rural areas. 
The bank continues to increase its commitment to implement ESG practices with 63.9% of the total loan portfolio classified as financing for sustainable business activities in 2020. 
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) was also the first bank in Southeast Asia to issue sustainability bonds in 2019. The sustainability bond market has become more attractive and it's projected that the ESG financing instrument will reach USD11tn in 2025. 
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) is also building digital partnerships and collaborations with P2P players, e-commerce platforms, and ride-hailing firms. 

Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) remains one of our top picks amongst the Indonesian banks, with its renewed focus on its core competency in microlending, as well as its meaningful digitalization of existing banking business as well as increasingly using digital channels to expand its reach.


Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital

Bank Tabungan Negara Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

*Good Number: Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) [BBTN] reported 4Q20 bottom-line result of IDR 482 bn, increasing IDR 130 bn (36.9%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding gains (assumed in 4Q20), we calculate results improved even further – increasing IDR 98 bn or 47.3% linked quarter; and*Credit Outlook Brightens: We were also quite pleased to see that net new NPLs too have decelerated and now amount to IDR 240 bn or just 8.2% on an annualized basis. Given the deceleration of net new NPLs, mix of loans, and the strong reserve cover, BBTN’s reserves appear to right where they need to be.

*Good Number: Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN.IJ) [BBTN] reported 4Q20 bottom-line result of IDR 482 bn, increasing IDR 130 bn (36.9%) linked quarter. On an operating basis excluding gains (assumed in 4Q20), we calculate results improved even further – increasing IDR 98 bn or 47.3% linked quarter; and*Credit Outlook Brightens: We were also quite pleased to see that net new NPLs too have decelerated and now amount to IDR 240 bn or just 8.2% on an annualized basis. Given the deceleration of net new NPLs, mix of loans, and the strong reserve cover, BBTN’s reserves appear to right where they need to be. 

*Weak 4Q20: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 4Q20 results of IDR 7.1 tn, declining IDR 699 bn (9.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Worse yet, when we exclude various non-core items, core operating results declined IDR 4.6 bn (55.5%) over the same period. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws; and  *Credit Challenge, But Modest Earnings Event: By our calculation, we find that 4Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 1.3 tn for an annualized rate of increase of 46.5% - rivaling some of the worst Indian banks. Given the continued breakdown in credit quality which shows no signs of abating, we calculate that reserves are short close to IDR 3.5 tn or about 50% of 4Q20 PBT – which is de minimis relative to the sector and region.

*Weak 4Q20: Bank Central Asia (BBCA.IJ) [BCA] reported 4Q20 results of IDR 7.1 tn, declining IDR 699 bn (9.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Worse yet, when we exclude various non-core items, core operating results declined IDR 4.6 bn (55.5%) over the same period. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws; and  *Credit Challenge, But Modest Earnings Event: By our calculation, we find that 4Q20 net new NPLs amounted to IDR 1.3 tn for an annualized rate of increase of 46.5% - rivaling some of the worst Indian banks. Given the continued breakdown in credit quality which shows no signs of abating, we calculate that reserves are short close to IDR 3.5 tn or about 50% of 4Q20 PBT – which is de minimis relative to the sector and region. 

Bank Central Asia – Poor Showing At Indo Bellweather

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> announced its 4Q2020 and FY2020 results, which saw a credible perfomance with PPOP falling -5.1% YoY although net profit declined by -37% due to higher COVID-19 related provisions.
The bank's loan book grew by +7.7% over the year, with higher growth coming from corporate loans and micro, with commercial loans also expanding from a low base.
Deposits grew by +12.2% during 2020 whilst current accounts grew by +22% YoY last year, boosting CASA and helping to reduce the cost of funds. 
One key positive was that the cost of credit ended the year at 2.35%, which was below the bank's guidance of 2.5%-3.5% for the year. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>'s mobile banking goes from strenth to strength with the value of tranactions outstripping those through ATMs and at 25% of the cost. 
The bank is optimistic that 2021 will see +6% loan growth, driven by a recovery in the economy and a strong liquidity position, with a continuing drop in the cost of credit. 
<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> remains a core holding as a play on the recovery of loan growth as the economy recovers and provisioning levels fall. The bank is trading at 1.5x FY21E PBV which is below its 3-year average of 1.74x but its can easily trade higher in light of the recovery.
</div>

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) announced its 4Q2020 and FY2020 results, which saw a credible perfomance with PPOP falling -5.1% YoY although net profit declined by -37% due to higher COVID-19 related provisions.
The bank's loan book grew by +7.7% over the year, with higher growth coming from corporate loans and micro, with commercial loans also expanding from a low base.
Deposits grew by +12.2% during 2020 whilst current accounts grew by +22% YoY last year, boosting CASA and helping to reduce the cost of funds. 
One key positive was that the cost of credit ended the year at 2.35%, which was below the bank's guidance of 2.5%-3.5% for the year. 
Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)'s mobile banking goes from strenth to strength with the value of tranactions outstripping those through ATMs and at 25% of the cost. 
The bank is optimistic that 2021 will see +6% loan growth, driven by a recovery in the economy and a strong liquidity position, with a continuing drop in the cost of credit. 

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains a core holding as a play on the recovery of loan growth as the economy recovers and provisioning levels fall. The bank is trading at 1.5x FY21E PBV which is below its 3-year average of 1.74x but its can easily trade higher in light of the recovery.


Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Time to Look Forward

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Bank Negara Indonesia – MOSOE Tosses A Grenade

Bank Negara Indonesia: Without any detail the MOSOE announced that BBNI will seek a rights offering in 2022. We calculate a minimum loss reserve...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Both Micro and Digital

Bank Rakyat Indonesia remains one of our top picks amongst the Indonesian banks, with its renewed focus on its core competency in microlending and...

Angus Mackintosh

Bank Tabungan Negara – Well Managed

BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA: BBTN reported 4Q20 bottom-line result which increased 36.9% linked quarter. Net new NPLs too have decelerated at just 8.2% on...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Central Asia – Poor Showing At Indo Bellweather

BANK CENTRAL ASIA: BBCA reported 4Q20 results decline of 9.0% linked quarter. Results at BCA were highlighted by negative operating jaws. Net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - Time to Look Forward

Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) remains a core holding in Indonesia, as a play on the recovery of loan growth, as the economy picks up and...

Angus Mackintosh

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