ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Wave, Del Monte, and Grab's Alliances

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ) - Digital Catalysts Abound?

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) - Ultra-Micro and Digital Aspirations in Place

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

Indonesia has seen its new COVID-19 cases swell significantly since the Lebaran holiday. As a result of the outbreak, the government implemented Emergency PPKM measures, which have closed shopping malls, reduced mobility, and moved non-essential workers to work from home. 
The big question on everyone's minds is when this outbreak will peak, and how long the government will extend the Emergency PPKM measures to control mobility.  The longer the measures are kept in place, the greater the impact on the overall economy, although we still see far less damage to the economy than in 2Q2020.
Obviously, it may be too soon to confirm we are past the peak but these numbers look hopeful but there are some positive signals and the government has stepped up the vaccination program significantly.
In a testing survey in Jakarta conducted at the end of March, it was found that nearly half of those tested already had antibodies to the COVID-19 virus, pointing toward a significant underestimate of the true numbers but it also means we may be closer to reaching herd immunity.
The Indonesian government has already downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021 to +3.7%-4.5% versus its previous forecast of +4.5%-5.3% GDP growth to reflect the recent new wave of COVID-19 cases.
If the PKN measures are relaxed by mid-August then it is quite possible that Indonesia could achieve +5% GDP growth in 3Q and 4Q2021, assuming the vaccination rollout continues, bringing the country closer to herd immunity.
The JCI has effectively moved sideways for the past month and we continue to recommend buying blue-chip recovery plays on this market weakness with a positive view on banks, telcos, selective consumer stocks, and healthcare. More detail on our stock picks below the fold.

Indonesia has seen its new COVID-19 cases swell significantly since the Lebaran holiday. As a result of the outbreak, the government implemented Emergency PPKM measures, which have closed shopping malls, reduced mobility, and moved non-essential workers to work from home. 
The big question on everyone's minds is when this outbreak will peak, and how long the government will extend the Emergency PPKM measures to control mobility.  The longer the measures are kept in place, the greater the impact on the overall economy, although we still see far less damage to the economy than in 2Q2020.
Obviously, it may be too soon to confirm we are past the peak but these numbers look hopeful but there are some positive signals and the government has stepped up the vaccination program significantly.
In a testing survey in Jakarta conducted at the end of March, it was found that nearly half of those tested already had antibodies to the COVID-19 virus, pointing toward a significant underestimate of the true numbers but it also means we may be closer to reaching herd immunity.
The Indonesian government has already downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021 to +3.7%-4.5% versus its previous forecast of +4.5%-5.3% GDP growth to reflect the recent new wave of COVID-19 cases.
If the PKN measures are relaxed by mid-August then it is quite possible that Indonesia could achieve +5% GDP growth in 3Q and 4Q2021, assuming the vaccination rollout continues, bringing the country closer to herd immunity.
The JCI has effectively moved sideways for the past month and we continue to recommend buying blue-chip recovery plays on this market weakness with a positive view on banks, telcos, selective consumer stocks, and healthcare. More detail on our stock picks below the fold. 

CrossASEAN Indonesian Strategy - Peaks and Troughs