External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>BBNI has the highest exposure to SOE contractors at 2.4%, followed by BBRI and BMRI at 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.</li><li>There will only be a minimal impact on profitability as banks will reallocate their over-provisioning from other sectors to fill the hole.</li><li>Maintain Overweight on decent earnings growth, a sound macrooutlook, and potential rate cuts with BBCA and BMRI as our top picks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BBNI has the highest exposure to SOE contractors at 2.4%, followed by BBRI and BMRI at 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.There will only be a minimal impact on profitability as banks will reallocate their over-provisioning from other sectors to fill the hole.Maintain Overweight on decent earnings growth, a sound macrooutlook, and potential rate cuts with BBCA and BMRI as our top picks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.</li><li>With NIM, CIR and CoC remain in check, and healthy asset quality, we expect big-4 banks’ to resume robust net profit growth in FY25.</li><li>We reinitiate the banking sector coverage with Overweight rating and BBCA as our top pick in FY24, followed by BMRI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.With NIM, CIR and CoC remain in check, and healthy asset quality, we expect big-4 banks’ to resume robust net profit growth in FY25.We reinitiate the banking sector coverage with Overweight rating and BBCA as our top pick in FY24, followed by BMRI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks: Moderating FY24 Growth, but Intact Fundamentals Shall Support High Growth to Resume in FY25

<ul><li>The big-4 banks’ Aug 23 results show that the y-o-y loans growth (at 8.4-12.3% in Aug-23) has continued to outpace deposits growth (4.9-9.8%), except for BBRI whose deposits grew by 12.3% in Aug 23 driven by its TD.</li><li>From a liquidity standpoint, BBCA has the upper hand given its LDR at 69% compared to around 90% for the others as of Aug 23.</li><li>With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock ratings are currently Under Review.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The big-4 banks’ Aug 23 results show that the y-o-y loans growth (at 8.4-12.3% in Aug-23) has continued to outpace deposits growth (4.9-9.8%), except for BBRI whose deposits grew by 12.3% in Aug 23 driven by its TD.From a liquidity standpoint, BBCA has the upper hand given its LDR at 69% compared to around 90% for the others as of Aug 23.With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock ratings are currently Under Review.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banking - Growth in TD While Awaiting Liquidity Improvements

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to 2024F</li><li>BBNI’s guidance for 7-9% yoy loans growth and a minimum 4.6% NIM this year should be broadly inline with our forecast</li><li>Our CoC expectation of 149bps this year should provide ample room for higher coverage on two SOE contractors, namely WIKA and WSKT, as BBNI’s management will re-allocate the provisions to other borrowers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV) as we roll over our valuation to 2024FBBNI’s guidance for 7-9% yoy loans growth and a minimum 4.6% NIM this year should be broadly inline with our forecastOur CoC expectation of 149bps this year should provide ample room for higher coverage on two SOE contractors, namely WIKA and WSKT, as BBNI’s management will re-allocate the provisions to other borrowers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Playing It Safe

Indonesia

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)

Banks - Steady Despite the Turbulence

Maintain Overweight on decent earnings growth, a sound macrooutlook, and potential rate cuts with BBCA and BMRI as our top picks.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banks: Moderating FY24 Growth, but Intact Fundamentals Shall Support High Growth to Resume in FY25

We expect a temporary deceleration in banks’ FY24 earnings growth, driven by slower loan growth, in-line with past trend in election year.

BRI Danareksa Research

Banking - Growth in TD While Awaiting Liquidity Improvements

With the market awaiting liquidity improvements, the rising trend in the LDR and TD growth may persist in Sep 23 in our view. Our sector and stock...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Playing It Safe

Bank Negara Indonesia(BBNI IJ)Playing it safeWe reiterate our BUY call on BBNI with a higher GGM-derived TP of IDR12,000 (implying 1.4x 2024F PBV)...

BRI Danareksa Research

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