Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> by 33% over the last 11 months and the price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range.</li>
<li>The number of NVDRs issued on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> have continued to increase while decreasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> now trades at a higher forward PE as compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> and the gap in price to book has narrowed significantly.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Bank (BBL TB) has outperformed Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) by 33% over the last 11 months and the price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range.
The number of NVDRs issued on Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) have continued to increase while decreasing on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB).

Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) now trades at a higher forward PE as compared to Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) and the gap in price to book has narrowed significantly.


BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-scb-x" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)</a> booked a solid set of 4Q2022 results, with the first NIM expansion in two years and record high net interest income.</li>
<li>The bank also provided details of its mothership strategy, which has now come to fruition, with the restructuring process now complete with its increasingly strong digital credentials becoming clearer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-scb-x" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank</a> remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more data may be required to get there.</li>
</ul>



Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) booked a solid set of 4Q2022 results, with the first NIM expansion in two years and record high net interest income.
The bank also provided details of its mothership strategy, which has now come to fruition, with the restructuring process now complete with its increasingly strong digital credentials becoming clearer.

Siam Commercial Bank remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more data may be required to get there.


Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Traversing Generations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> remains one of Thailand's top-tier banks with particular strength in SME lending and consumer lending making it a beneficiary of both consumption and tourism recovery. </li>
<li>The bank continues to grow its digital banking and business through its K PLUS app which now has more than 21m users, with multiple use cases and self-apply loan applications. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank</a> remains a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank trading at 0.7x FY2023 PBV and 8.3% FY2023E ROE. </li>
</ul>



Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) remains one of Thailand's top-tier banks with particular strength in SME lending and consumer lending making it a beneficiary of both consumption and tourism recovery. 
The bank continues to grow its digital banking and business through its K PLUS app which now has more than 21m users, with multiple use cases and self-apply loan applications. 

Kasikornbank remains a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank trading at 0.7x FY2023 PBV and 8.3% FY2023E ROE. 


Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) - Replanting the Seeds of Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>Reiterate BUY with a target price of Bt171.00.BBL is our top pick in the banking sector as we like (1)steady growth ahead in 2023-24 (2)solid balance sheet to withstand uncertainty</li>
<li>Earnings to reach the peak in 4Q22 We expect Bangkok Bank (BBL) to post a net profit of Bt8.4bn in 4Q22, up 34% YoY (+10% QoQ). </li>
<li>Despite a muted lending growth in 4Q22 due to repayment in Nov, its full-year loan growth in 2022 is likely to be solid at 8.5% YoY</li>
</ul>


Reiterate BUY with a target price of Bt171.00.BBL is our top pick in the banking sector as we like (1)steady growth ahead in 2023-24 (2)solid balance sheet to withstand uncertainty
Earnings to reach the peak in 4Q22 We expect Bangkok Bank (BBL) to post a net profit of Bt8.4bn in 4Q22, up 34% YoY (+10% QoQ). 
Despite a muted lending growth in 4Q22 due to repayment in Nov, its full-year loan growth in 2022 is likely to be solid at 8.5% YoY


BBL : Steady Growth with Attractive Valuation

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank (BBL/F TB)

BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

BBL has outperformed KBANK by 33% over the last 11 months. The price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range. BBL trades at a higher...

Brian Freitas

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Traversing Generations

Siam Commercial Bank remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more...

Angus Mackintosh

Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) - Replanting the Seeds of Growth

Kasikornbank is a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank...

Angus Mackintosh

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

BBL : Steady Growth with Attractive Valuation

Reiterate BUY with a target price of Bt171.00. BBL is our top pick in the banking sector as we like (1) steady growth ahead in 2023-24 (2) solid...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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