Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Exports: Management expects double-digit growth in retail sales, led by healthy demand in key markets and a continuous focus on network expansion.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Domestic 2Ws: Management expects strong growth in volumes, with a focus on profitable categories.</li><li>The share of first-time buyers stands at ~60% of demand, while the remaining portion is contributed by replacement/additional vehicle buyers.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Exports: Management expects double-digit growth in retail sales, led by healthy demand in key markets and a continuous focus on network expansion.Domestic 2Ws: Management expects strong growth in volumes, with a focus on profitable categories.The share of first-time buyers stands at ~60% of demand, while the remaining portion is contributed by replacement/additional vehicle buyers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Auto - Domestic 2W Recovery on Track

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Results beat expectations; gross margin ahead of our estimate: Reported revenue at Rs79.7bn was ahead of broader expectations.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Initial signs of demand recovery in 2Ws; Management remains cautious</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Valuation and outlook: At CMP, the company is trading at 16x FY24E core EPS, which is broadly in line with its long-term mean multiple.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Results beat expectations; gross margin ahead of our estimate: Reported revenue at Rs79.7bn was ahead of broader expectations.Initial signs of demand recovery in 2Ws; Management remains cautiousValuation and outlook: At CMP, the company is trading at 16x FY24E core EPS, which is broadly in line with its long-term mean multiple.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Auto - Exports Growing on Strong Footing; Focus Shifting to EVs

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected rural revival.We factor in 17/16/18% volume CAGRs for 2Ws/PVs/CVs over FY22-24E.Key sectoral trends to watch out for include: (1) partial reversal in shift in mix towards premium-end vehicles as discretionary consumption from the average middle class consumer rebounds, with a pick-up in GDP; (2) EV penetration in scooters reaching 25% by FY25E and large OEMs emerging as dominant players; (3) current geopolitical conflict driving higher costs in the near term.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>FY22 was a difficult year for the auto industry on account of supply-chain challenges as well as RM headwinds, resulting in an increased total cost of ownership</li>
<li>In Mar’22, wholesale volumes for the PV industry remained flat but it continued its sequential recovery (up 6% MoM), led by improvement in chip availability</li>
<li>The 2W and tractor segments declined by 21% and 10% respectively on a YoY basis on account of muted demand and the high base of the last year</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


FY22 was a difficult year for the auto industry on account of supply-chain challenges as well as RM headwinds, resulting in an increased total cost of ownership
In Mar’22, wholesale volumes for the PV industry remained flat but it continued its sequential recovery (up 6% MoM), led by improvement in chip availability
The 2W and tractor segments declined by 21% and 10% respectively on a YoY basis on account of muted demand and the high base of the last year

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Monthly Volume Update - Mar 2022 - Easing Supply Chain Issues Improve PV & CV Traction

India

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

Bajaj Auto - Domestic 2W Recovery on Track

In an interaction with Emkay, new CFO Mr. Dinesh Thapar reiterated expectations of a strong recovery in domestic 2Ws and an aggressive focus on EVs

Emkay

Bajaj Auto - Exports Growing on Strong Footing; Focus Shifting to EVs

Results beat expectations; gross margin ahead of our estimate: Reported revenue at Rs79.7bn was ahead of broader expectations. Initial...

Nirmal Bang

Autos: Time to relook

We expect auto demand (across segments) to revive on a low base relative to the peak of FY19, led by a pick-up in economic growth and expected...

HDFC Securities

Auto Monthly Volume Update - Mar 2022 - Easing Supply Chain Issues Improve PV & CV Traction

FY22 was a difficult year for the auto industry on account of supply-chain challenges as well as RM headwinds, resulting in an increased total cost...

Axis Direct

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