External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed elevated commodity prices, which had changed the inflation dynamics significantly.</li><li>To curb the prevailing inflation problem, all central banks including the RBI have adopted a path of aggressive policy tightening.</li><li>The RBI increased the repo rate by 50bps in Sep’22 MPC, marking a total policy rate hike of 190bps to 5.9%.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div></div>

Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed elevated commodity prices, which had changed the inflation dynamics significantly.To curb the prevailing inflation problem, all central banks including the RBI have adopted a path of aggressive policy tightening.The RBI increased the repo rate by 50bps in Sep’22 MPC, marking a total policy rate hike of 190bps to 5.9%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2fy23 Preview - Non-Commodities Likely to Do Better

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> has been outperforming the Nifty 50 over the last 6M</li>
<li>Our flash checks done in the south suggests the outperformance may not last long</li>
<li>Failure of a model, high competitive intensity, and changing preferences can again lead to high inventory levels leading to a possible correction in wholesales post-festive season. </li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) has been outperforming the Nifty 50 over the last 6M
Our flash checks done in the south suggests the outperformance may not last long
Failure of a model, high competitive intensity, and changing preferences can again lead to high inventory levels leading to a possible correction in wholesales post-festive season. 


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Brace for Disappointment

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The wholesale volumes in Sep’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.</li><li>The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.</li><li>According to our estimates, PV domestic wholesale dispatches posted impressive growth of 95%/7% YoY/MoM, suggesting improving supply to fulfil order backlogs. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The wholesale volumes in Sep’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.According to our estimates, PV domestic wholesale dispatches posted impressive growth of 95%/7% YoY/MoM, suggesting improving supply to fulfil order backlogs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automotive Industry - Robust Growth Momentum in PV & CV Sales; 2Ws Lag Behind

<ul><li>The wholesale volumes in Aug’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.</li><li>The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.</li><li>Based on the Aug’22 domestic wholesale volume numbers, the CV segment supply growth stood ahead followed by the PV and 2W segments.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The wholesale volumes in Aug’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.Based on the Aug’22 domestic wholesale volume numbers, the CV segment supply growth stood ahead followed by the PV and 2W segments.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

India

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

Q2fy23 Preview - Non-Commodities Likely to Do Better

Q2FY23 marked a cool-off in the key commodity prices including the base metals and the crude oil as against the Q1FY23 period that witnessed...

Axis Direct

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Brace for Disappointment

Our flash channel checks with dealers in the south suggest HMCL's outperformance may not last long. Performance this festive season is extremely...

Pranav Bhavsar

Automotive Industry - Robust Growth Momentum in PV & CV Sales; 2Ws Lag Behind

The wholesale volumes in Sep’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume Update - Aug 2022

The wholesale volumes in Aug’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the...

Axis Direct

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

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