Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

To be the richest man in communist China is a dangerous perch. Jack Ma of Alibaba and Ant Financial was only the latest in a long line of those answering to the title of "China's richest person" who have had their assets either expropriated outright or suffered severe value-destruction through sudden, arbitrary regulatory actions by the Chinese authorities. Huang Guangyu of the electronics-retail group Gome was arrested in 2011 (when he was China's richest man) and spent a decade in prison/detention before returning to his company earlier this year. Alibaba, "China's Amazon" but with a bigger valuation given the size of its market opportunity -- and its celebrated fintech subsidiary Ant Financial (creator of Alipay, and an increasingly sophisticated payments infrastructure and internet-based bank) -- had clearly become too big for the CCP (Chinese communist party) to control. For millennia, China's rulers have prized centralized control above all else (hence the perceived need to stamp out fissiparous tendencies in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia -- and the outlandish claims that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China). Independent privately-owned companies that dominate the technology frontier (like Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu) are clearly seen as threats to that centralized control by the CCP.The latest victims of China's arbitrary regulatory actions are shareholders of the ride-hailing company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Global (DIDI US)</a>; a couple of days after its New York IPO, Didi Chuxing was ordered to stop signing up new users, and numerous other regulatory actions were taken against the company (including removing its app from all domestic app stores). Later in July, the entire US$100 billion tutoring business in China came under severe regulatory pressure, forcing companies in the sector to operate purely on a "non-profit" basis. Companies listing abroad are facing increasingly severe regulatory scrutiny. Investors need to be aware that expropriation risk for private businesses is very real in communist China, and the valuations of all privately-owned companies need to incorporate a significant "China premium" (i.e., valuations that are 30-40% of what they might be without that expropriation risk) before investors can safely hold onto them.

To be the richest man in communist China is a dangerous perch. Jack Ma of Alibaba and Ant Financial was only the latest in a long line of those answering to the title of "China's richest person" who have had their assets either expropriated outright or suffered severe value-destruction through sudden, arbitrary regulatory actions by the Chinese authorities. Huang Guangyu of the electronics-retail group Gome was arrested in 2011 (when he was China's richest man) and spent a decade in prison/detention before returning to his company earlier this year. Alibaba, "China's Amazon" but with a bigger valuation given the size of its market opportunity -- and its celebrated fintech subsidiary Ant Financial (creator of Alipay, and an increasingly sophisticated payments infrastructure and internet-based bank) -- had clearly become too big for the CCP (Chinese communist party) to control. For millennia, China's rulers have prized centralized control above all else (hence the perceived need to stamp out fissiparous tendencies in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia -- and the outlandish claims that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China). Independent privately-owned companies that dominate the technology frontier (like Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu) are clearly seen as threats to that centralized control by the CCP.The latest victims of China's arbitrary regulatory actions are shareholders of the ride-hailing company DiDi Global (DIDI US); a couple of days after its New York IPO, Didi Chuxing was ordered to stop signing up new users, and numerous other regulatory actions were taken against the company (including removing its app from all domestic app stores). Later in July, the entire US$100 billion tutoring business in China came under severe regulatory pressure, forcing companies in the sector to operate purely on a "non-profit" basis. Companies listing abroad are facing increasingly severe regulatory scrutiny. Investors need to be aware that expropriation risk for private businesses is very real in communist China, and the valuations of all privately-owned companies need to incorporate a significant "China premium" (i.e., valuations that are 30-40% of what they might be without that expropriation risk) before investors can safely hold onto them. 

China Premium: Expropriation Risk Needs to Be Priced in to Privately-Owned Companies

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020. However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-pre-ipo-was-in-the-slow-stream-playing-catch-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the slow stream, playing catch-up</a>.In this note, we compare CVI with its main peer Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) and comment on the recent regulatory announcement with respect to TME.

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.As of Dec 20, it had 181m online music MAUs, 16m online music services monthly paying users, 327,000 social entertainment services monthly paying users. It had over 60m music tracks, of which more than 1m were created by registered independent artists. Its daily active users on average spent 76mins daily listening to music. CVI’s revenue has grown 4.3x over FY18-20, to RMB4.9bn. There have been no signs of slowdown as its revenue increased by 102% in FY19 and was up another 111% in FY20. Both online music services and social entertainment services revenue have shown strong growth. Online music services revenue grew by 73% in 2019 and another 47.6% in 2020. Social entertainment services revenue was the largest driver of growth, as it grew by 344% in 2019 and was up another 320% in 2020. However, it remains a distant second player in the market and has yet to make a profit.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Was in the slow stream, playing catch-up.In this note, we compare CVI with its main peer Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) and comment on the recent regulatory announcement with respect to TME.

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Airdoc Technology / Equity Capital Markets

In recent years, the value of AI medical imaging has become increasingly prominent. For example, the application of CT for diagnosis in COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the importance of imaging and played an immeasurable role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this context, many players in this industry have planned to start IPO in the capital market. On June 21, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-airdoc-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33524:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK) </a>filed its prospectus with the HKEX and officially started its IPO process. Airdoc is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. This insight mainly analyzed the business, the financial position and concerns of the Company.

In recent years, the value of AI medical imaging has become increasingly prominent. For example, the application of CT for diagnosis in COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the importance of imaging and played an immeasurable role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. In this context, many players in this industry have planned to start IPO in the capital market. On June 21, Beijing Airdoc Technology (BAT HK) filed its prospectus with the HKEX and officially started its IPO process. Airdoc is a global market leader and pioneer in providing AI-empowered retina-based early detection, diagnosis and health risk assessment solutions. This insight mainly analyzed the business, the financial position and concerns of the Company.

Pre-IPO Beijing Airdoc Technology - The Strength and the Concerns

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

The bloodbath in Hong Kong and H-shares in the first week of July 2021 was mainly caused by the perceived worsening corporate governance to invest in Chinese companies as the Chinese regulator has gone more draconian on the new listing of the Chinese companies, especially for tech companies.  This will inevitably put downward pressure on the share prices of the tech companies but it will increase trading volume in the HK exchange, on the short term basis at least. In the long term, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> may be the only Exchange approved by the Chinese government for Chinese companies to raise money from foreign investors. Maintain Buy.

The bloodbath in Hong Kong and H-shares in the first week of July 2021 was mainly caused by the perceived worsening corporate governance to invest in Chinese companies as the Chinese regulator has gone more draconian on the new listing of the Chinese companies, especially for tech companies.  This will inevitably put downward pressure on the share prices of the tech companies but it will increase trading volume in the HK exchange, on the short term basis at least. In the long term, HKEX (388 HK) may be the only Exchange approved by the Chinese government for Chinese companies to raise money from foreign investors. Maintain Buy. 

HK Exchange (388): Beneficiary of HK Tech Crack Down

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Baidu (9888 HK)

China Premium: Expropriation Risk Needs to Be Priced in to Privately-Owned Companies

July21 provided many reminders (Didi, education) that Ant Financial isn't the exception but the rule. Expropriation risk is real in the PRC, and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) Pre-IPO - Tencent Music Peer Comp, Regulatory Impact

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. The company has also obtained investments...

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Beijing Airdoc Technology - The Strength and the Concerns

This article mainly analyzed Airdoc Technology in terms of both the strength and the concerns through the perspectives of the business, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Exchange (388): Beneficiary of HK Tech Crack Down

HKEX (388 HK) may be the only Exchange approved by the Chinese government for Chinese companies to raise money from foreign investors. Maintain Buy

Henry Soediarko

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)