IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a new transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The emergence of Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. </li>
<li>The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.</li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a new transaction implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The emergence of Hancock and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. 
The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This makes life a lot simpler. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting will now team up with Chile’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">SQM</a> to take control of lithium play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>.</li>
<li>In a<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02755714-6A1187098" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> binding Offer</a>, by way of a Scheme, the joint bidders (collectively holding ~37.79%) are offering A$3.70/share, a 5.1% bump in terms to SQM's prior Scheme Offer. </li>
<li>
An off-market takeover at A$3.65/share unfolds IF this Scheme were to fail. If both fail/lapse,  SQM will, "in certain circumstances", be required to proceed with its off-market transaction of A$3.50/share.</li>
</ul>


This makes life a lot simpler. Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting will now team up with Chile’s SQM to take control of lithium play Azure Minerals (AZS AU).
In a binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, the joint bidders (collectively holding ~37.79%) are offering A$3.70/share, a 5.1% bump in terms to SQM's prior Scheme Offer. 

An off-market takeover at A$3.65/share unfolds IF this Scheme were to fail. If both fail/lapse,  SQM will, "in certain circumstances", be required to proceed with its off-market transaction of A$3.50/share.


<ul>
<li>On the 15th August, lithium play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a> entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a>. PLS is offering 0.07 new PLS shares for every LRS share. </li>
<li>The scrip terms back out an implied price of A$0.20/share or a 67% premium to last close. Expected implementation was late November, early December; now January / February 2025.</li>
<li>My back &amp; forth with both Pilbara and Latin indicate the booklet had to be delayed to reflect Pilbara's recently adjusted FY25 guidance.</li>
</ul>


On the 15th August, lithium play Latin Resources (LRS AU) entered into a Scheme with Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU). PLS is offering 0.07 new PLS shares for every LRS share. 
The scrip terms back out an implied price of A$0.20/share or a 67% premium to last close. Expected implementation was late November, early December; now January / February 2025.
My back &amp; forth with both Pilbara and Latin indicate the booklet had to be delayed to reflect Pilbara's recently adjusted FY25 guidance.


Latin Resources (LRS AU)'s Scheme: Minor Delay, Not Deal Related

<ul>
<li>Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)</a>/Hancock's bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure (AZS AU)</a>; but ding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal (ASB AU)</a> tilt. I'm batting 50%. </li>
<li>Whereas FIRB <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240430/pdf/0631wdsf6wd6kn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gave the green light</a> for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.</li>
<li>Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. </li>
</ul>


Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock's bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I'm batting 50%. 
Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is "not concerned" with Hanwha's acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
Even Austal didn't high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 


The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government "Approves' Hanwha Ocean's Austal Bid

<ul>
<li>For the month of May 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6.6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~60%. The average premium YTD is ~46%. Japan is well up yoy. Hong Kong is down.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of May 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6.6bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in May was ~60%. The average premium YTD is ~46%. Japan is well up yoy. Hong Kong is down.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2024: Malaysia Airports, Alps Logistics, Nihon Housing, Great Eastern

Australia

Azure Minerals Limited is a mineral exploration company. The Company is developing mineral mining projects located in Sierra Madre Occidental mining province in northern and central Mexico.

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Azure Minerals (AZS AU)