IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Link Administration (LNK AU), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU).

Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK), Link Net (LINK IJ). 



Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) - Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2385783/nbtc-preps-mega-merger-measures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Post reports</a> that the Thai regulator (NBTC) will propose ten remedial measures to approve the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>The NBTC board is not expected to issue a final decision as it waits for an interpretation by the Council of State if it can approve or reject the merger.</li>
<li>The current share price ratio is 9.511x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Bangkok Post reports that the Thai regulator (NBTC) will propose ten remedial measures to approve the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
The NBTC board is not expected to issue a final decision as it waits for an interpretation by the Council of State if it can approve or reject the merger.
The current share price ratio is 9.511x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively.


DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> is not blowing out the lights versus peers, but it's relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If Kazuo Inamori's shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> currently trades at a 62% discount to NAV, a level last seen around the Covid lows in May 2020.</li>
<li>Washington and Beijing reach an agreement allowing US regulators access to audits of Chinese companies listed on American exchanges.  However, US regulators remain cautious about the success of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kyocera (6971 JP) is not blowing out the lights versus peers, but it's relatively inexpensive to its history and peers. If Kazuo Inamori's shares are sold, Kyocera can buy them.

Hang Lung (10 HK) currently trades at a 62% discount to NAV, a level last seen around the Covid lows in May 2020.
Washington and Beijing reach an agreement allowing US regulators access to audits of Chinese companies listed on American exchanges.  However, US regulators remain cautious about the success of the deal.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, Hang Lung Group, CSRC/PCAOB Audit Terms, MACA, Nitro Software

<ul>
<li>For the month of August, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8.5bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of August, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8.5bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata  (AXIATA MK)</a> completed the acquisition of 66.03% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a> on the 22 June, Axiata was obligated to undertake a mandatory offer for the remaining 33.97%. </li>
<li>The MTO commences today and concludes on the 28 September. Payment will be the 6 October.</li>
<li>There are no conditions attached to the MTO. Play the spread, where available.</li>
</ul>


After Axiata  (AXIATA MK) completed the acquisition of 66.03% in Link Net (LINK IJ) on the 22 June, Axiata was obligated to undertake a mandatory offer for the remaining 33.97%. 
The MTO commences today and concludes on the 28 September. Payment will be the 6 October.
There are no conditions attached to the MTO. Play the spread, where available.


Malaysia

Axiata Group Berhad is a telecommunication company.  The Company's main activities is the establishment, maintenance, and provision of telecommunications and related services.

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Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) - Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

This week, the highest gross spreads are Link Admin (38.6%), Alliance Aviation (36.1%), VNET (34.2%), Ramsay (32.3%), Infomedia (25.0%), Genex...

Arun George

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Reports suggest that the NBTC will propose ten measures to approve the merger. At the last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, Hang Lung Group, CSRC/PCAOB Audit Terms, MACA, Nitro Software

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: August 2022 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.

David Blennerhassett

Link Net: Axiata's MTO Kicks Off Today

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.0%/10.9%, assuming 6 October payment. There is zero blow-up risk on this. But this is a tight...

David Blennerhassett

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Merger Arb Mondays (19 Sep) - Link Admin, Ramsay, Alliance, Genex, Moya, Singapore Medical, VNET

This week, the highest gross spreads are Link Admin (38.6%), Alliance Aviation (36.1%), VNET (34.2%), Ramsay (32.3%), Infomedia (25.0%), Genex...

Arun George

DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Reports suggest that the NBTC will propose ten measures to approve the merger. At the last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, Hang Lung Group, CSRC/PCAOB Audit Terms, MACA, Nitro Software

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: August 2022 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was ~41%, and a year-to-date average of 38%.

David Blennerhassett

Link Net: Axiata's MTO Kicks Off Today

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.0%/10.9%, assuming 6 October payment. There is zero blow-up risk on this. But this is a tight...

David Blennerhassett

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger