IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/china-mobile-explores-acquiring-hong-kong-telecom-firm-hkbn-sources-2023-04-18/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> is exploring a potential buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>. The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. </li>
<li>To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.</li>
<li>PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-28/hong-kong-s-hkbn-is-said-to-get-1-billion-buyout-offer-from-hgc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).</li>
<li>The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. </li>
<li>HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reportedHKBN Ltd (1310 HK) has received a takeover offer from HGC Global Communications at a valuation of more than US$1 billion (implies around HK$6 per share).
The shares rose 11.6% to HK$5.59 before entering a trading halt. The rumoured price is underwhelming compared to historical multiples and share prices. 
HKBN has a relatively concentrated shareholder register which suggests that the rumoured takeover premium of around 20% is not going to cut it.


HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD0.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog, Top Glove.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD0.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog, Top Glove.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>'s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.</li>
<li>The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK's irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   </li>
<li>An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. </li>
</ul>



HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)'s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK's irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   
An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. 


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/telcos-media-tech/china-mobile-said-explore-deal-internet-provider-hkbn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is exploring a buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00, a 16.0% premium to last close.  </li>
<li>HKBN has been the subject of numerous bid rumours, which seemingly came to nothing due to the challenge of meeting the largest shareholders' (TPG and MBK) price expectations. </li>
<li>The rumoured offer price will struggle to gain TPG/MBK’s backing. The current valuation is unappealing, as HKBN trades at a premium multiple compared to peers at the last close. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that China Mobile (941 HK) is exploring a buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00, a 16.0% premium to last close.  
HKBN has been the subject of numerous bid rumours, which seemingly came to nothing due to the challenge of meeting the largest shareholders' (TPG and MBK) price expectations. 
The rumoured offer price will struggle to gain TPG/MBK’s backing. The current valuation is unappealing, as HKBN trades at a premium multiple compared to peers at the last close. 


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

Malaysia

Axiata Group Berhad is a telecommunication company.  The Company's main activities is the establishment, maintenance, and provision of telecommunications and related services.

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Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): Trading Halt, HGC’s Rumoured Takeover Offer

It will be tough to pull off privatisation at the rumoured valuation of more than US$1bn (around HK$6 per share). Nevertheless, the renewed...

Arun George

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and an irrevocable competing offer clause are invitations for competing offers. The...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

Bloomberg reports that China Mobile is exploring a buyout of HKBN and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00. The rumoured offer price will struggle to...

Arun George

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