Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.</li>
<li>Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. </li>
<li>It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.</li>
</ul>


Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.
Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. 
It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.


Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th September, pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Charter Hall has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241018/pdf/0698jwgh9vfx9k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased terms to A$3.85/share</a> (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. </li>
<li>
HPI's <a href="https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/10/18/charter-hall-ups-the-ante-with-final-hpi-bid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 

HPI's reported response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 11 April.</li>
<li>The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.</li>
<li>There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
</ul>



HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) will replace CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 11 April.
The change has come earlier than expected as Hochtief hold nearly 90% of CIMIC. Positioning on HDN could be light- the stock could rally over the next couple of days.
There could be another ad hoc change prior to the June rebalance and then there will be more changes at the regular rebalance in June.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a> inclusion in the ASX200 Index.</li>
<li>Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT inclusion in the ASX200 Index.
Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.
If HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

Australia

Aventus Group operates as a real estate company. The Company owns, develops, and manages retail centers. Aventus Group serves customers in Australia.

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Aventus Group (AVN AU)

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ASX200 Index Rebalance: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) Replaces CIMIC; More Changes in May & June

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ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

We think there is a better than even chance of HDN being included in the ASX200 Index at the March rebalance. Else, HDN will replace Crown Resorts...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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