FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly.  The persistent increase in bank funding costs that has led Westpac to raise mortgage rates is a further tightening of monetary conditions and comes at a precarious time for the housing market.  Australian political risk has increased as an election approaches in around six months. Recent economic data suggest some moderation in activity.  US inflation pressure continues to build, and US rates are set to rise further.  The Trump administration is intensifying its trade and economic pressure on China, dampening the outlook for the CNY, and Asia region assets.  Emerging markets globally are demonstrating heightened vulnerability to rising US rates which has, and is likely to continue to, spill over to a weaker AUD.  The RBNZ may also surprise the market and cut rates before year-end.

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly.  The persistent increase in bank funding costs that has led Westpac to raise mortgage rates is a further tightening of monetary conditions and comes at a precarious time for the housing market.  Australian political risk has increased as an election approaches in around six months. Recent economic data suggest some moderation in activity.  US inflation pressure continues to build, and US rates are set to rise further.  The Trump administration is intensifying its trade and economic pressure on China, dampening the outlook for the CNY, and Asia region assets.  Emerging markets globally are demonstrating heightened vulnerability to rising US rates which has, and is likely to continue to, spill over to a weaker AUD.  The RBNZ may also surprise the market and cut rates before year-end.

RBA Rate Cut May Soon Be Back on the Table

The AUD sunk and then rebounded again on political developments this week.  The ascendency of Scott Morrison to PM offers the ruling party a road to redemption.  Morrison comes from the most senior ministry role of Treasurer and has built a strong reputation as a pragmatist in controversial posts in immigration and social services ministries.  He is more conservative than the former PM Turnbill and has the best chance of uniting the factional divide in the Liberal-National Coalition.  The combatants in the factional and personal vendetta that gripped the party in recent years culminating it the dethroning of another PM have been weakened, allowing space for Morrison to assert authority and show badly needed leadership.  The market had feared a lurch to a populist far-right anti-immigration government largely doomed to lose an election to a Labor party that has drifted further to the left.  A national election still looms in six months, policy paralysis will not be easily fixed, policy uncertainty remains, but Morrison presents a better chance of lifting the standard of government either as a leader or from the opposition after the next election.

The AUD sunk and then rebounded again on political developments this week.  The ascendency of Scott Morrison to PM offers the ruling party a road to redemption.  Morrison comes from the most senior ministry role of Treasurer and has built a strong reputation as a pragmatist in controversial posts in immigration and social services ministries.  He is more conservative than the former PM Turnbill and has the best chance of uniting the factional divide in the Liberal-National Coalition.  The combatants in the factional and personal vendetta that gripped the party in recent years culminating it the dethroning of another PM have been weakened, allowing space for Morrison to assert authority and show badly needed leadership.  The market had feared a lurch to a populist far-right anti-immigration government largely doomed to lose an election to a Labor party that has drifted further to the left.  A national election still looms in six months, policy paralysis will not be easily fixed, policy uncertainty remains, but Morrison presents a better chance of lifting the standard of government either as a leader or from the opposition after the next election. 

New Australian PM Offers a Path to AUD Redemption

Political analyst

Aaron Timms

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton by 48 votes to 35.

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton by 48 votes to 35.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

In a follow-up note from our report last week (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/major-commodity-currencies-may-diverge-cad-set-to-shine" target="_blank">Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine</a>) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy meetings next week and see risks of dovish surprises in both.  Business surveys have ebbed, particularly in New Zealand.  The Australian economy is showing more resilience, but risks from a housing market downturn are intensifying.  Uncertainty in global markets, particularly related to US-China trade relations, may be increasing.  Even a subtle shift in message from both central banks may place significant downward pressure on their currencies.  In contrast, Canadian economic reports showed strength, and this may be reinforced next week.

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

RBA Rate Cut May Soon Be Back on the Table

In our view, downside risk for Australian interest rates and the AUD have increased significantly. The persistent increase in bank funding costs...

Greg Gibbs

New Australian PM Offers a Path to AUD Redemption

The AUD sunk and then rebounded again on political developments this week. The ascendency of Scott Morrison to PM offers the ruling party a road...

Greg Gibbs

One Step Closer to a Labor Government

Some quick reactions to this morning’s leadership spill in the Liberal Party room, which saw Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hold off a challenge...

Aaron Timms

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

RBA and RBNZ May Reveal Doubts

In a follow-up note from our report last week (Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine) we preview the RBA and RBNZ policy...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)