FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore.  The AUD has significantly lagged the rebound in risk appetite indicators, including copper, other commodity and Asian currencies.  Fears over Australia’s housing market have dominated recent developments, but labour market indicators suggest the RBA will be in no hurry to cut rates.  US real yields have fallen significantly since their peak in November last year and may reflect recent evidence of weaker economic activity.  Prominent Fed members suggest the Fed may be moving to target average inflation, paving the way for lower US rates and a weaker USD outlook.

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy statement yesterday.  Crucially the audience will be wanting to know if Lowe still thinks the next move in rates is likely to be higher.

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy statement yesterday.  Crucially the audience will be wanting to know if Lowe still thinks the next move in rates is likely to be higher.

Spotlight on RBA Lowe; Time to Drop Bias to Hike

Today the RBA releases its latest policy meeting statement.  This is followed by a speech by RBA Governor Lowe on Wednesday, and the release of the RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday, where it updates its medium-term forecasts.A lot has changed in the last two months since the previous RBA policy meeting on 4-Dec, and its previous SoMP on 8-Nov.  This is an important juncture for the RBA to set policy guidance after a tumultuous end to last year.

Today the RBA releases its latest policy meeting statement.  This is followed by a speech by RBA Governor Lowe on Wednesday, and the release of the RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday, where it updates its medium-term forecasts.A lot has changed in the last two months since the previous RBA policy meeting on 4-Dec, and its previous SoMP on 8-Nov.  This is an important juncture for the RBA to set policy guidance after a tumultuous end to last year.

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

US Real Yields Fall, and the Fed Wants Higher Inflation

The surge in Chinese equities, leading a broader rebound in emerging market assets is significant and hard to ignore. The AUD has significantly...

Greg Gibbs

Spotlight on RBA Lowe; Time to Drop Bias to Hike

The Speech by RBA Governor Lowe today (Wednesday) will be under a bright spotlight as the market looks for further colour after the policy...

Greg Gibbs

RBA Policy Faces Big Test

Today the RBA releases its latest policy meeting statement. This is followed by a speech by RBA Governor Lowe on Wednesday, and the release of the...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Completes Its Come-Down

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD. These moves...

Greg Gibbs

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover. The...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)