Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.</li>
<li>In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.</li>
</ul>


Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.
In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.
Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novartis-ag-8261b5d2-53ba-409e-8628-86d59cd6f853" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27907:1" rel="noopener">Novartis (NOVN SW)</a> has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.</li>
<li>In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has obtained first-in-human imaging studies approval for its first in-house peptide radiopharmaceutical therapeutic program, PD-32766 targeting patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

Novartis (NOVN SW) has expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Peptidream. The expanded partnership could bring up to $2.7B in milestone payments plus royalties to Peptidream.
In 2023, Peptidream reported revenue of ¥29B, up 7% YoY, with radiopharmaceutical revenue growing 40% YoY to ¥16B. For 2024, the company guided for revenue of ¥35B, up 22% YoY.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

<ul>
<li>In 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics (688185 CH)</a> generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.</li>
<li>This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.</li>
<li>CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.</li>
</ul>


In 2023, CanSino Biologics (688185 CH) generated revenue of RMB561.7 million from the sales of meningococcal conjugate vaccines, up 266% YoY.
This year, consensus is expecting CanSino to report revenue of RMB858 million, up whopping 140% YoY, mainly driven by meningococcal vaccines.
CanSino is expected to add pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccine in its revenue stream in 2025. The company’s PCV13i is a potential best-in-class improved PCV13.


CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The trade of being short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a>'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> intends to launch a Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!</li>
</ul>


The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.

Giordano (709 HK)'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas, including gastrointestinal, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, central nervous system, pain control, anaesthesia, and infection.

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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Daiichi Sankyo has increased focus on high growth oncology and entered into a potentially very lucrative deal with Merck. We like the company, we...

Avien Pillay

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

Peptidream got nod for first human trial for radiopharma targeting renal cell carcinoma. Expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Novartis...

Tina Banerjee

CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

CanSino saw 266% YoY revenue growth in 2023 from meningococcal vaccines, with expectations of 140% YoY increase in 2024 driven by the same...

Tina Banerjee

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

Daiichi Sankyo has increased focus on high growth oncology and entered into a potentially very lucrative deal with Merck. We like the company, we...

Avien Pillay

Peptidream (4587 JP): Steadily Riding the Next Wave of Drug Discovery

Peptidream got nod for first human trial for radiopharma targeting renal cell carcinoma. Expanded peptide discovery collaboration with Novartis...

Tina Banerjee

CanSino Biologics (688185 CH): Limited Downside Is Seen; Meningococcal Vaccines to Drive Growth

​CanSino saw 266% YoY revenue growth in 2023 from meningococcal vaccines, with expectations of 140% YoY increase in 2024 driven by the same...

Tina Banerjee

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CanSino saw 266% YoY revenue growth in 2023 from meningococcal vaccines, with expectations of 140% YoY increase in 2024 driven by the same...