Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.</li>
<li>The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.</li>
<li>Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)</li>
</ul>


US cap-weighted Health Care (ETF: XLV-US) remains in a 4.5-month RS uptrend relative to the S&amp;P 500, and we have the Sector on watch for a potential upgrade to overweight.
The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF (PPH-US) recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year base breakout.
Buy: Eli Lilly (LLY-US), Astrazeneca (AZN-US), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B-DK), Roche (ROG-CH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY-US), Bayer AG (BAYN-DE), UCB S.A. (UCB-BE), Ipsen SA (IPN-FR), ONO Pharmaceutical (4528-JP), and Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-US)


Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbvie-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1" rel="noopener">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)</a> shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.</li>
<li>Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.</li>
</ul>



Abbvie Inc (ABBV US) shares remained rangebound in 2021, mainly due to Humira patent expiration overhang. Humira is the flagship drug of the company, accounting for 37% of total revenue.
Increasing label expansion of its two other drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now increasingly opening up new growth avenues for AbbVie. Together these drugs contributed 8% to total revenue.
Attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield make AbbVie a top value investment idea amid this turbulent time.


AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

United Kingdom

AstraZeneca PLC operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, researches, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical and medical products. AstraZeneca focuses its operations on eight therapeutic areas, including gastrointestinal, oncology, cardiovascular, respiratory, central nervous system, pain control, anaesthesia, and infection.

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AstraZeneca PLC (AZN LN)

Buy Global LargeCap Pharma: LLY, AZN, NOVO.B-DK, ROG-CH, BMY, BAYN-DE, UCB-BE, IPN-FR, 4528-JP, TEVA

The VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH recently broke out topside a 9-month base and RS displays a bullish reversal. Zooming-out, we can see a 6+ year...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

Going by the FDA’s recent action, Junshi Bioscience’s toripalimab has a chance to get rejected by the FDA. It may miss the approval timeline....

Tina Banerjee

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

AbbVie Inc (ABBV US): Great Value Stock to Buy in Choppy Market

Abbvie’s reducing dependence on Humira, visibility on non-Humira portfolio, coupled with high dividend yield and attractive valuation make it a top...

Tina Banerjee

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