Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the biggest sell while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the biggest buy.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the biggest sell while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the biggest buy.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period</li>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ</li>
<li>China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. </li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

<ul>
<li>Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY</li>
<li>On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline. </li>
<li>Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment. </li>
</ul>


Q323 revenues of the top 5 WFE players amounted to $22.7 billion, up 2.6% QoQ, but down 9.5% YoY
On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the previously anticipated 20% decline. 
Both ASML and TEL are forecasting 2024 revenues roughly flat YoY. We think the same will apply to the broader WFE segment. 


Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;</li>
<li>Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. </li>
</ul>


Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. 


Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.</li>
<li>Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.</li>
<li>A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.</li>
</ul>


Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan company results supported their views as well.
Looking ahead, Novatek, Asustek, and Himax are set to release in Taiwan. Combined with NXP abroad, this will provide color on display demand, automotive, and servers/PCs.
A new Chinese memory chip maker just received major government investment, with an IPO of its related company planned.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than...

Brian Freitas

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Global semi sales for October 23 of $46.6 billion, +3.9% MoM, -0.7% YoY. Q323 semi WFE billings $25.6 billion, -11% YoY, -1% QoQ. China set to...

William Keating

Semiconductor WFE Q323 Segment Roundup & Outlook

On the basis of current quarter forecasts, we calculate CY2023 WFE revenue to reach $92.6 billion, a 1.6% YoY decline, and a far cry from the...

William Keating

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Positive Signs for Memory, PC, Smartphones; Key Autos & Display Color This Week

Last week global heavyweights AMD, Samsung, and Qualcomm delivered good news, including for the Memory, PC, and Smartphone industries. Taiwan...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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