Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  </li>
</ul>



Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Snow-Peak-plans-330m-management-buyout-with-Bain-help" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”</li>
<li>Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”
Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei hasn’t been this high since the Berlin Wall came toppling down. The Nikkei was up over 4% on the week and stands 15% higher YTD.</li>
<li>There were plenty of reasons not to be higher. US stocks closed marginally lower; AI stocks like  SMCI crashed on Friday; </li>
<li>Japanese stocks were higher but that hides significant divergence between the winners and losers after a heavy week of earnings releases. Perhaps a pause for breath next week.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei hasn’t been this high since the Berlin Wall came toppling down. The Nikkei was up over 4% on the week and stands 15% higher YTD.
There were plenty of reasons not to be higher. US stocks closed marginally lower; AI stocks like  SMCI crashed on Friday; 
Japanese stocks were higher but that hides significant divergence between the winners and losers after a heavy week of earnings releases. Perhaps a pause for breath next week.


Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124040" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124122" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124635" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: Valuation First-Look</a>. </li>
<li>We revise our forecasts to reflect the FY23 preliminary estimates and long-term growth targets. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is fairly valued at the IPO price range. </li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case, Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case and Amer Sports IPO: Valuation First-Look. 
We revise our forecasts to reflect the FY23 preliminary estimates and long-term growth targets. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is fairly valued at the IPO price range. 


Amer Sports (AS US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...

Mark Chadwick

Amer Sports (AS US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | Rakuten, Asics, Ebara, Tokyo Electron Chalk up Big Gains

​Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...

Mark Chadwick

Amer Sports (AS US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Amer has launched an NYSE IPO to raise US$1.6-1.8 billion at a US$16.00 to US$18.00 price range. Our valuation analysis suggests that Amer is...

Arun George

Despite potential reasons for caution, the Nikkei reached a new high not seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall, with a 4% increase for the week...