Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Snow Peak agreement with Bain Capital to take the outdoor brand private next month seems to have been in the works for a couple of years. </li>
<li>Although sales are expected to rebound this year to near record highs, Snow Peak insists the domestic camping boom is over and will look at long-term growth overseas instead.</li>
<li>Even so, the MBO price looks cheap. Snow Peak is likely to see a rebound in domestic sales in FY2024 and its plans for overseas expansion are solid.</li>
</ul>


Snow Peak agreement with Bain Capital to take the outdoor brand private next month seems to have been in the works for a couple of years. 
Although sales are expected to rebound this year to near record highs, Snow Peak insists the domestic camping boom is over and will look at long-term growth overseas instead.
Even so, the MBO price looks cheap. Snow Peak is likely to see a rebound in domestic sales in FY2024 and its plans for overseas expansion are solid.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The possibility/likelihood of a "¥50bn MBO" for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> was leaked in a Nikkei article last Friday. It went limit up two days in a row. </li>
<li>That TOB price is more than 70% off its three-year high. That will certainly disappoint some. Separately, the price seems a bit low given growth. </li>
<li>The family and friends own ~42% so if someone gets upset, or uppity, there could be a challenge. Just because an MBO exists doesn't mean people have to tender in.</li>
</ul>


The possibility/likelihood of a "¥50bn MBO" for Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) was leaked in a Nikkei article last Friday. It went limit up two days in a row. 
That TOB price is more than 70% off its three-year high. That will certainly disappoint some. Separately, the price seems a bit low given growth. 
The family and friends own ~42% so if someone gets upset, or uppity, there could be a challenge. Just because an MBO exists doesn't mean people have to tender in.


Snow Peak (7816) - Bain Deal at ¥1,250 - 46% Premium Is Nice, Not A Home Run

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). </li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  </li>
</ul>



Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) has recommended a Bain Capital-sponsored MBO tender offer at JPY1,250 per share, a 58.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 February). 
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 38.13% ownership ratio.
Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance condition is achievable.  


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Japan-s-Snow-Peak-plans-330m-management-buyout-with-Bain-help" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “<em>in the range of 1,200 yen per share.</em>”</li>
<li>Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.</li>
<li>The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) is set to disclose a Bain-sponsored MBO this week “in the range of 1,200 yen per share.”
Mergermarket first disclosed a potential MBO on Friday. Snow Peak responded that while it is true that we are considering going private, no decision has been made at this time.
The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an offer materialising is high. 


Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

<ul>
<li>Apparently, MergerMarket had an article out Friday saying once-higher-flying outdoor/sporting goods retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a> was considering going private. The company <a href="https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS03293/7851b800/df96/4e0f/b3a4/21cea71efa05/140120240216538923.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a>(J) late they were considering multiple options.</li>
<li>A Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC16E150W4A210C2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> (J) Saturday said it was Bain would launch an MBO/Tender Offer as early as this week paying ¥50bn. </li>
<li>This will probably go limit up Monday. I'd expect an announcement post-close Monday. Long-suffering long-only investors who have already sold will be disappointed. Those who were late to sell? Happy.</li>
</ul>


Apparently, MergerMarket had an article out Friday saying once-higher-flying outdoor/sporting goods retailer Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP) was considering going private. The company said(J) late they were considering multiple options.
A Nikkei article (J) Saturday said it was Bain would launch an MBO/Tender Offer as early as this week paying ¥50bn. 
This will probably go limit up Monday. I'd expect an announcement post-close Monday. Long-suffering long-only investors who have already sold will be disappointed. Those who were late to sell? Happy.


Snow Peak (7816) - Nikkei Says Bain to Launch ¥50bn MBO

Japan

Snow Peak Inc. designs, manufactures, and retails camping equipment and outdoor lifestyle goods.

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Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)

Snow Peak: Cheap MBO

Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak (7816) - Bain Deal at ¥1,250 - 46% Premium Is Nice, Not A Home Run

The Bain MBO for Snow Peak is 55/45 Bain/family. And the details out show strong forecasts for growth. Given those forecasts, this 46% premium is...

Travis Lundy

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816) - Nikkei Says Bain to Launch ¥50bn MBO

Late Friday, media sources suggested Bain would launch an MBO with CEO Yamai-san staying on. The Tender could start as early as this week. Snow...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Snow Peak: Cheap MBO

​Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...

Michael Causton

Snow Peak (7816) - Bain Deal at ¥1,250 - 46% Premium Is Nice, Not A Home Run

The Bain MBO for Snow Peak is 55/45 Bain/family. And the details out show strong forecasts for growth. Given those forecasts, this 46% premium is...

Travis Lundy

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain-Backed MBO at JPY1,250

Based on the irrevocables, the minimum acceptance condition requires a 52.8% minority acceptance rate. While not a knockout offer, the acceptance...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816 JP): Bain Contemplating Backing an MBO at JPY1,200

The rumoured JPY1,200 offer price is light vs historical trading ranges but attractive vs peer and historical multiples. The probability of an...

Arun George

Snow Peak (7816) - Nikkei Says Bain to Launch ¥50bn MBO

Late Friday, media sources suggested Bain would launch an MBO with CEO Yamai-san staying on. The Tender could start as early as this week. Snow...

Travis Lundy

Snow Peak's agreement with Bain Capital to go private reflects a long-term strategy to focus on overseas growth despite a predicted rebound in...