IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)</a> entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.</li>
<li>The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/ainsworth-shareholder-slams-takeover-bid-as-shares-climb-31-per-cent-20250428-p5lutb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opposes</a> the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   </li>
<li>Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.</li>
</ul>



Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.


Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Feb 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos, A2 Milk Company, Nextdc.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.</li>
<li>The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.</li>
</ul>


With 6 days left to review cutoff, there are 2 potential adds and 3 potential deletions for the MV Australia Equal Weight Index at the March rebalance.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3% and a round-trip trade of A$159m.
The final list of inclusions/exclusions will depend on price movements till next Friday and whether the provider makes any significant changes to the free float of stocks in the universe.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. </li>
<li>The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. </li>
<li>Option pricing is in-line with historical <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
Option pricing is in-line with historical S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.


Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

Australia

Aristocrat Leisure Limited manufactures and sells gaming machines in Australia and internationally.  The Company also supplies gaming systems, software, table gaming equipment and other gaming related products and services to casinos, clubs and hotels.

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Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU)

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance...

Arun George

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance...

Arun George

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Feb 14th): Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Treasury Wine Estates, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in March; Multiple Overlaps

There could be 5 changes for the index in March. A few more names are close deletes. SIG's inclusion will add to passive inflows while MIN's...

Brian Freitas

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

​The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...