Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Aussie wealth manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a> has <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02301765-2A1260088?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has received an indicative, non-binding, conditional proposal from US-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ares-management-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28771:1" rel="noopener">Ares Management Corp (ARES US)</a>, by way of a Scheme. No price was mentioned.
The take-private proposal follows a tortuous period for what was once an Australian icon.  The final report of a royal commission last year exposed damaging internal practices - such as billing deceased customers and lying to regulators - culminating in net cash outflow and the exit of Catherine Brenner (chairman) and Brian Salter (group counsel).
Amidst the ongoing net outflow - which has continued into the 3Q20 - chairman David Murray resigned in August over his handling of a sexual harassment issue. Director John Fraser also resigned.
After completing the sale of its life insurance business to Resolution Life on the 1 July this year, AMP's chairman Debra Hazelton announced on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02276147-2A1247501?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 September</a> that the company was undertaking a review of its assets and businesses after receiving unsolicited interest in both. It is not clear whether Ares is interested in selected parts or the whole package.
Shares are up 20% as I type.
More below the fold.

Aussie wealth manager AMP Ltd (AMP AU) has announced it has received an indicative, non-binding, conditional proposal from US-based Ares Management Corp (ARES US), by way of a Scheme. No price was mentioned.
The take-private proposal follows a tortuous period for what was once an Australian icon.  The final report of a royal commission last year exposed damaging internal practices - such as billing deceased customers and lying to regulators - culminating in net cash outflow and the exit of Catherine Brenner (chairman) and Brian Salter (group counsel).
Amidst the ongoing net outflow - which has continued into the 3Q20 - chairman David Murray resigned in August over his handling of a sexual harassment issue. Director John Fraser also resigned.
After completing the sale of its life insurance business to Resolution Life on the 1 July this year, AMP's chairman Debra Hazelton announced on the 2 September that the company was undertaking a review of its assets and businesses after receiving unsolicited interest in both. It is not clear whether Ares is interested in selected parts or the whole package.
Shares are up 20% as I type.
More below the fold. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>
Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.</li>
<li> Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  </li>
<li>Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   </li>
</ul>



Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility, which likely is the new normal given issues Quant Funds, illiquidity, the lack of US preparation and global leadership, and the corporate bond market are all becoming systemic risks.
 Global Recession Already Underway: A global recession is already well underway, which should worsen given how much this pandemic is having on consumer confidence.  
Financial Stability Called Into Question:The global market rout is calling financial stability into question. This crisis of confidence and increased likelihood of waterfall of losses that will make for a VERY toxic cocktail – especially considering that many names are still not profitable on an operating basis.   


United States

Ares Management Corporation operates as an asset management firm. The Firm focuses on tradable credit, direct lending, private equity, and real estate markets. The Company also invest in all levels of a company capital structure-from senior debt to common equity. Ares Management serves university endowments, pension and sovereign wealth funds, banks, and insurance companies.

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Ares Management (ARES US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

AMP: Ares' Proposal For The Once Mighty

Private equity firm Ares Management is in talks to buy embattled wealth manager AMP, via a break-up of the 171-year-old company, or full control.

David Blennerhassett

Toxic Cocktail

Increasing Systemic Risks:Events are moving quickly and the fluidity of this pandemic has created a destructive amount of market volatility,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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