IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> has disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a> at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.</li>
<li>The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. </li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) has disclosed a binding offer from Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) at US$5.85 per share, a 90% premium to the undisturbed price of US$3.08 (4 October).
The offer is attractive compared to analyst price targets and peer multiples but unattractive compared to cyclical low timing and precedent transactions.
The shareholder structure requires an activist to disrupt the vote. The long-dated offer provides optionality on a bump if lithium prices materially re-rates. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio’s Binding Proposal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241007/pdf/068tbs6fnf3fnj.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> it has approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">(ALTM US)</a> regarding a potential acquisition. </li>
<li>No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.</li>
<li>Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. </li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has confirmed it has approached Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/(ALTM US) regarding a potential acquisition. 
No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.
Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. 


Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piedmont-lithium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37086:1" rel="noopener">Piedmont Lithium (PLL US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close on 21 June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-americas-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23860:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Americas (LAC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36776:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Lithium (SGML)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) and Piedmont Lithium (PLL US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close on 21 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and in a one-way trade of US$28m.
The largest inflows will be in Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US), Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU), Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US), Lithium Americas (LAC US) and Sigma Lithium (SGML).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: Two Deletions & Other Changes

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Developers scrambled to advertise projects to potential investors in the US between 2021-2023</li><li>Prices for lithium reached all time highs due to impact of COVID on supply chains</li><li>Prices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV production forecasts</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Developers scrambled to advertise projects to potential investors in the US between 2021-2023Prices for lithium reached all time highs due to impact of COVID on supply chainsPrices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV production forecastsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>As warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-newmont-merger-fancy-index-shenanigans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113359" rel="noopener">Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans</a> in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.</li>
<li>We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. </li>
<li>There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.</li>
</ul>


As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. 
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.


Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

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Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)