Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of APR is implied price of 370,809 won per share, representing an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers' valuation range. </li>
<li>We estimate APR to generate sales of 683.9 billion won (up 25.7% YoY) and operating profit of 114.6 billion won (up 39.5% YoY) in 2024. </li>
<li>APR is one of the best IPOs in the Korean cosmetics sector in the past several years.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of APR is implied price of 370,809 won per share, representing an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers' valuation range. 
We estimate APR to generate sales of 683.9 billion won (up 25.7% YoY) and operating profit of 114.6 billion won (up 39.5% YoY) in 2024. 
APR is one of the best IPOs in the Korean cosmetics sector in the past several years.


<ul>
<li>APR is getting ready to complete an IPO in KOSPI in February 2024. The IPO price range is from 147,000 won to 200,000 won. </li>
<li>According to the bankers' valuation, the company's valuation is expected to range from 1.1 trillion won to 1.6 trillion won post IPO. </li>
<li>The company's best selling product is its skin care beauty device product called Medicube Age-R. </li>
</ul>


APR is getting ready to complete an IPO in KOSPI in February 2024. The IPO price range is from 147,000 won to 200,000 won. 
According to the bankers' valuation, the company's valuation is expected to range from 1.1 trillion won to 1.6 trillion won post IPO. 
The company's best selling product is its skin care beauty device product called Medicube Age-R. 


Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ. </li>
<li>In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.</li>
<li>NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military &amp; defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%). </li>
</ul>


On 4 July, NPS disclosed the details of the ownership changes for 112 listed companies in Korea, of which 87 were listed in KOSPI and 25 in KOSDAQ. 
In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies in Korea.
NPS reduced its capital allocation to the military &amp; defense sector. NPS reduced its stake in LIG Nex1 (-2.32%), Poongsan Corp (-2.24%), and Hanwha Aerospace (-1.02%). 


What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The three risk-off signals include the decline in the Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent Korean IPOs.</li>
<li>These three risk-off signals are offset by one major risk-on signal which includes the U.S. Junk Bond-Treasury Yield spread. </li>
<li>An important risk-off signal is the first day share price performances of major Korean IPOs after listing. We have started to see some weakness on this signal in July. </li>
</ul>


The three risk-off signals include the decline in the Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent Korean IPOs.
These three risk-off signals are offset by one major risk-on signal which includes the U.S. Junk Bond-Treasury Yield spread. 
An important risk-off signal is the first day share price performances of major Korean IPOs after listing. We have started to see some weakness on this signal in July. 


Three Risk-Off Signals Offset by One Risk-On Signal?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices will run from 1 June to 31 August.
We see 6 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 6 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
Stocks migrating upward have outperformed stocks migrating lower. But there are still stocks trading at a Price to Book of less than 1.


KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

South Korea

APR Corporation of Korea operates cosmetics businesses. The Company develops and produces facial mask, lotion, elite fluid, and other products. APR also develops and manufactures beauty devices.

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APR (278470 KS)

APR IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of APR is implied price of 370,809 won per share, representing an 85% upside from the high end of the bankers' valuation...

Douglas Kim

APR IPO Preview

APR is getting ready to complete an IPO in KOSPI in February 2024. According to the bankers' valuation, the company's valuation is expected to...

Douglas Kim

What Did NPS Buy and Sell in Korean Stock Market in 2Q 2024?

In 2Q 2024, the NPS reduced its investments in defense and military stocks and increased investments in cosmetics, shipbuilding, and food companies...

Douglas Kim

Three Risk-Off Signals Offset by One Risk-On Signal?

The three risk-off signals include the decline in Bitcoin price, decline in the copper price, and the first day share price performances of recent...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Potential Migrations in September Are Moving

There are many changes expected for the KOSPI size indices in September. The potential upward migrations have outperformed the potential downward...

Brian Freitas

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