Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss stocks that are highlighted in the local media as potential inclusion and exclusion candidates in the KOSPI 200 rebalance in December 2024.</li>
<li>Stocks that are expected to be included in the KOSPI 200 index include Hyosung Heavy Industries, APR, Miwon Commercial, and OCI.</li>
<li>Stocks that have been discussed as the most likely exclusion candidates in the KOSPI 200 rebalance include Lotte Tour Development, MS Industrial, Young Poong, GC Holdings, and KG Donbu Steel. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss stocks that are highlighted in the local media as potential inclusion and exclusion candidates in the KOSPI 200 rebalance in December 2024.
Stocks that are expected to be included in the KOSPI 200 index include Hyosung Heavy Industries, APR, Miwon Commercial, and OCI.
Stocks that have been discussed as the most likely exclusion candidates in the KOSPI 200 rebalance include Lotte Tour Development, MS Industrial, Young Poong, GC Holdings, and KG Donbu Steel. 


KOSPI 200 Rebalance in December 2024 Highlighted by Locals

<ul>
<li>We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.</li>
<li>These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.</li>
<li>The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.</li>
</ul>


We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.
These 41 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in August and could underperform relative to the market.
The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in August include APR, Fadu, and Kuk Il Paper.


End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Around a third of the way though the review period, there could be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.6-21 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 2.5-16 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions over the last few months and there could be more to go with short selling banned.</li>
</ul>


Around a third of the way though the review period, there could be 4 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.6-21 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 2.5-16 days of ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions over the last few months and there could be more to go with short selling banned.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Likely in December

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2024.</li>
<li>The seven potential additions are up on average 53.9% from end of 2023. The seven potential deletion candidates are down on average 14.2% YTD. </li>
<li>The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 2.2 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.7 trillion won. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2024.
The seven potential additions are up on average 53.9% from end of 2023. The seven potential deletion candidates are down on average 14.2% YTD. 
The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 2.2 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.7 trillion won. 


An Early Look at Potential Deletions and Additions to KOSPI200 in December 2024

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for APR (278470 KS) which starts trading on 27 February. APR is the most anticipated IPO in Korea so far in 2024.</li>
<li>Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of APR is 370,809 won, which is 48% higher than the IPO price. </li>
<li><em><strong>We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+ from the IPO price on the first day.  </strong></em></li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for APR (278470 KS) which starts trading on 27 February. APR is the most anticipated IPO in Korea so far in 2024.
Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of APR is 370,809 won, which is 48% higher than the IPO price. 
We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+ from the IPO price on the first day.  


Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO

South Korea

APR Corporation of Korea operates cosmetics businesses. The Company develops and produces facial mask, lotion, elite fluid, and other products. APR also develops and manufactures beauty devices.

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APR (278470 KS)

KOSPI 200 Rebalance in December 2024 Highlighted by Locals

In this insight, we discuss stocks that are highlighted in the local media as potential inclusion and exclusion candidates in the KOSPI 200...

Douglas Kim

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 41 Companies in Korea in August 2024

We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 41 stocks in Korea in August 2024, among which 2 are in KOSPI and 39 are in KOSDAQ.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes Likely in December

There could be 4 changes for the KOSPI200 in December. The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.6-21 days of ADV while the impact on...

Brian Freitas

An Early Look at Potential Deletions and Additions to KOSPI200 in December 2024

We provide an early look at the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI200 rebalance in December 2024. The seven potential additions are up on...

Douglas Kim

Trading Strategy of APR on the First Day of IPO

APR starts trading tomorrow. We recommend investors to take some profits off the table (30%-50%) if the share price shoots higher by 100% to 200%+...

Douglas Kim

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