Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.</li>
<li>Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.</li>
<li>The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.
Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.
The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.


Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>If you're an investor in any firm with some form of dominance in US markets, then you need to know who Ms Lina Khan is.</li>
<li>Corporate misbehavior is a topic of her interest. She shows zero tolerance towards large corporations who wield outsized market power.</li>
<li>FTC along with 17 US states filed a lawsuit against Amazon for illegally maintaining monopoly power. How will Amazon be impacted?</li>
</ul>


If you're an investor in any firm with some form of dominance in US markets, then you need to know who Ms Lina Khan is.
Corporate misbehavior is a topic of her interest. She shows zero tolerance towards large corporations who wield outsized market power.
FTC along with 17 US states filed a lawsuit against Amazon for illegally maintaining monopoly power. How will Amazon be impacted?


Who Is Lina Khan? Why Should Investors Bother?

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.</li>
<li>Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.</li>
<li>Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics and Nanya Technology will report their results this week. Samsung could reportedly increase NAND prices this month, giving a potential hint to the memory outlook they will provide.
Hon Hai will begin mass production of its Model C electric car in 4Q23E in Taiwan. This will provide a proof point for Hon Hai's global EV platform business model.
Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

The latest Nvidia partnership expansion will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Who Is Lina Khan? Why Should Investors Bother?

Competition is good. For consumers. Not so for firms. It eats into profits. Regulatory action aimed at key elements of a model can impede earnings...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung & Nanya Earnings; AI Names Rebound Again

Top gainers recently have included rebounding AI names -- One can consider using the bounce to find AI shorts to pair against an Nvidia long.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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