European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a> launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>. The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.</li>
<li>The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.</li>
<li>The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.</li>
</ul>



UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) launches an all-share takeover bid for 100% of Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM). The exchange equation is 0.175 UCG IM x 1 BAMI IM.
The implied value of Banco BPM shares is €6.6658/share, just a 0.3% premium. The transaction offers strong financial appeal, with Banco BPM trading at 0.72x P/BVPS and 11.52% dividend yield.
The gross spread of +7.4% suggests UniCredit may need to enhance the offer—adjusting the exchange ratio and/or adding cash—unless its share price approaches the IBES median target.


Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Italian government sold a 15% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-monte-dei-paschi-di-sien" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21162:1" rel="noopener">Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM)</a>, reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anima-holding-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21153:1" rel="noopener">Anima Holding (ANIM IM)</a>’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.</li>
<li>BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.</li>
</ul>


The Italian government sold a 15% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Sien (BMPS IM), reducing its holding to 11.7%, signaling potential acquisition interest.

Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM) and Anima Holding (ANIM IM)’s recent share purchases in BMPS suggest strategic positioning for a potential future acquisition within the Italian banking sector.
BMPS's improved financial performance, attractive valuation (5.2x Fwd NTM P/E and 0.6x P/BVPS, and heightened investor interest create favorable conditions for a merger or acquisition.


Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. In this report we outline key technical levels and drivers across major markets, and highlight attractive set ups in the following areas: European &amp; UK Banks, Exchanges/Markets, Asset Managers, and Insurance, Major Autos and Communications.

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments which we highlight below. Still, there are several indicators that continue to tell us we are not yet out of the woods. In this report we outline key technical levels and drivers across major markets, and highlight attractive set ups in the following areas: European &amp; UK Banks, Exchanges/Markets, Asset Managers, and Insurance, Major Autos and Communications.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Breakout Probability on the Rise

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout from a multi-year base, and (2) its breakout from a relative strength bottom. Further, the industry is resuming its secular trend of relative leadership within the financial sector.  In today’s report we highlight actionable names, most which are breaking out from either base or bottom patterns.

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout from a multi-year base, and (2) its breakout from a relative strength bottom. Further, the industry is resuming its secular trend of relative leadership within the financial sector.  In today’s report we highlight actionable names, most which are breaking out from either base or bottom patterns.

Global Asset Managers Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure

Italy

Anima Holding S.p.A. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides asset management services.

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Anima Holding (ANIM IM)

Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Breakout Probability on the Rise

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments...

Vermilion Research

Global Asset Managers Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Unicredit/Banco BPM: Italian Banking Consolidation

​UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Monte Dei Paschi Poised for Strategic Merger Opportunity

​Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Breakout Probability on the Rise

The probability for a breakout for global equities (MSCI ACWI) has increased in the past week based on several positive technical developments...

Vermilion Research

Global Asset Managers Are Breaking Out -- Add Exposure

Out of favor for the past three years, global asset managers are making a comeback, technically speaking, as seen by (1) the industry’s breakout...

Vermilion Research

UniCredit SpA launches all-share takeover bid for Banco BPM SpA, offering €6.6658/share with strong financial appeal. Market suggests potential...

Italian government sells stake in BMPS, sparking acquisition interest amid improved financials and attractive valuation.