Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> is a net cash iron ore pure play on high-grade lump iron ore with a high ROCE of&gt;30%. </li>
<li>The stock trades at 6.4x PE/3.8x EV-EBITDA FY24e and a &gt;9% dividend yield, assuming it meets its base dividend commitment of 15.9 bn ZAR. </li>
<li>The key risks are the finite mine life of 15 years, which the company will look to extend with capital commitment, and country risk premia as currency depreciation eats returns.</li>
</ul>



Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) is a net cash iron ore pure play on high-grade lump iron ore with a high ROCE of&gt;30%. 
The stock trades at 6.4x PE/3.8x EV-EBITDA FY24e and a &gt;9% dividend yield, assuming it meets its base dividend commitment of 15.9 bn ZAR. 
The key risks are the finite mine life of 15 years, which the company will look to extend with capital commitment, and country risk premia as currency depreciation eats returns.


Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ): Net Cash Iron Ore Player With High ROCE

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-832e22a7-7a1d-49cf-b992-c6347084cbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)</a>  making an offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a>.</li>
<li>Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)  making an offer for Anglo American (AAL LN).
Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector</li>
<li>Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit</li>
<li>Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.</li>
</ul>


BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector
Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit
Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.


"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mimasu-semiconductor-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5531:1" rel="noopener">Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. There's also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s unsolicited Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc-04f6cda9-c726-4c33-8544-c5046bc74b29" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28603:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (NGLOY US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iclick-interactive-asia-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27314:1" rel="noopener">iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week, being Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP)'s Tender Offer. There's also BHP Group (BHP AU)'s unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (NGLOY US).
Key updates took place on: Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), and iClick Interactive Asia Group (ICLK US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

Centamin plc is a mid-tier gold producer with gold production from the Sukari gold mine in southern Egypt. The company owns exploration and development assets in Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire and Ethiopia.

Hill & Smith Holdings PLC manufactures products for the infrastructure, galvanizing, building, and construction industries.  The Company produces traffic barriers, fencing, gantries, lighting columns, pipe supports, steel storage tanks, and variable message signs; plastic drainage pipe and pipe supports; powder coatings; and traffic counting data collection devices.

Hochschild Mining plc explores, mines, processes, and sells silver and gold.

Pan African Resources PLC engages in the exploration and mining of gold and platinum-group element (PGE) properties in South Africa. The company operates through five segments: Barberton Mines, Evander Mines, Phoenix Platinum, Corporate and Growth Projects, and Funding Company. Its PGE properties comprise platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium deposits. The company?s assets include Barberton Mines comprising three gold mines and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Plant, as well as Evander Mines consisting of a gold mine and the Evander Tailings Treatment Plant in Mpumalanga; and Phoenix Platinum, a Chrome Tailing Retreatment Plant located in Rustenburg, South Africa. It also provides funding services. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Central Asia Metals plc, through its subsidiaries, processes and produces copper cathodes from secondary mining techniques. The company is also involved in the identification, acquisition, and development of base and precious metals deposits. It owns 75% interest in the Copper Bay tailings project located in Chile. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Griffin Mining Limited is a Bermudian mining company, based in London. The Group has a number of interests in mining exploration and development projects throughout the world, the principal of which is a zinc-gold project in China.

Ecora Resources PLC is a royalty company focused on supporting the supply of commodities. Mining operations located in Australia, Canada, and South America.

Metals Exploration plc engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mining properties in the western Pacific Rim region. The company?s principal asset is its 100% owned Runruno Gold-Molybdenum project, which is located north of the Philippines. It also explores for zinc, copper, and nickel deposits. Metals Exploration plc was founded in 2004 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Mondi PLC is an international packaging and paper group, with key operations in central Europe, Russia and South Africa. The Company is integrated across the paper and packaging process and is principally involved in the manufacture of packaging paper, converted packaging products and uncoated fine paper. Dually-listed company with MND SJ.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds.  Anglo American PLC has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia and Australia.

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Anglo American (AAL LN)

Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ): Net Cash Iron Ore Player With High ROCE

As part of our comprehensive coverage on the iron ore space, we initiate on iron ore miner Kumba, a high ROCE player with a high dividend payout...

Sameer Taneja

Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

BHP's bid for Anglo American has woken up generalist investors to the looming copper deficit forecast later this decade.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ): Net Cash Iron Ore Player With High ROCE

As part of our comprehensive coverage on the iron ore space, we initiate on iron ore miner Kumba, a high ROCE player with a high dividend payout...

Sameer Taneja

Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

BHP's bid for Anglo American has woken up generalist investors to the looming copper deficit forecast later this decade.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

​BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mimasu Semi, Tietto Minerals, CSR, CPMC, Roland DG, IClick Interactive

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...