Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper and other base metals have been rising all year</li>
<li>The Trump tariff bump is not the only reason for this</li>
<li>Much less speculative positioning in futures vs previous peak meaning real world demand is the driver</li>
</ul>


Copper and other base metals have been rising all year
The Trump tariff bump is not the only reason for this
Much less speculative positioning in futures vs previous peak meaning real world demand is the driver


Tactical Trading -Revisiting MMG as Copper and Other Base Metals Perk Up

Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Hindustan Copper (HCP IN) India’s only pure-play copper miner – could see earnings surge &gt;60% if current price buoyancy sustains.</li>
<li>Copper rally appears drive by fundamentals with several large miners such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a> guiding declines.</li>
<li>Mining costs are largely location-specific and track inflation trends, supporting significant topline buoyancy.</li>
</ul>


Hindustan Copper (HCP IN) India’s only pure-play copper miner – could see earnings surge &gt;60% if current price buoyancy sustains.
Copper rally appears drive by fundamentals with several large miners such as Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Anglo American (AAL LN) guiding declines.
Mining costs are largely location-specific and track inflation trends, supporting significant topline buoyancy.


Copper Up 26% YoY, Now at All-Time Highs – Key Drivers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. </li>
<li>Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.</li>
<li>A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders. 
Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&amp;A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post-unification share price, M&amp;A, and franking credits.


Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul><li>Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. </li><li>OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.</li><li>No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI. NPH was removed from the index series at the rebalance yesterday.</li></ul>

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.No changes are expected for the FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI. NPH was removed from the index series at the rebalance yesterday.

DMA | JSE Dec 24 Rebalance: OUT Expected to Enter Top 40, NPH to Exit

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Sapphire produced 27,000 tonnes of copper and 21,500 tonnes of zinc, similar to last quarter</li><li>Matzah saw a slight increase in copper equivalent production and maintained processing rate at 3.6 million tonnes per annum</li><li>Mateo had a planned shutdown and lower head grades, but net debt decreased by US $51 million to US 345 million, with group EBITDA of US 121 million for the quarter</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Sapphire produced 27,000 tonnes of copper and 21,500 tonnes of zinc, similar to last quarterMatzah saw a slight increase in copper equivalent production and maintained processing rate at 3.6 million tonnes per annumMateo had a planned shutdown and lower head grades, but net debt decreased by US $51 million to US 345 million, with group EBITDA of US 121 million for the quarterThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AGL SJ)

Tactical Trading -Revisiting MMG as Copper and Other Base Metals Perk Up

Base metals, including copper, have been on the rise due to factors beyond the "Trump tariff bump," driven by increased real world demand and not...

Rikki Malik

Copper Up 26% YoY, Now at All-Time Highs – Key Drivers

Hindustan Copper could see earnings surge over 60% with sustained copper price buoyancy, driven by fundamental factors and mining cost dynamics.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post...

Arun George

DMA | JSE Dec 24 Rebalance: OUT Expected to Enter Top 40, NPH to Exit

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.

DMA

Fire Sale for Anglo Coal Bidders

The company had consistent production levels for copper and zinc, with cost performance varying between Matsa and Matteo, as well as an overall...

Money of Mine

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Tactical Trading -Revisiting MMG as Copper and Other Base Metals Perk Up

​Base metals, including copper, have been on the rise due to factors beyond the "Trump tariff bump," driven by increased real world demand and not...

Rikki Malik

Copper Up 26% YoY, Now at All-Time Highs – Key Drivers

​Hindustan Copper could see earnings surge over 60% with sustained copper price buoyancy, driven by fundamental factors and mining cost dynamics.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification

A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board's case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser's case is strong on post...

Arun George

DMA | JSE Dec 24 Rebalance: OUT Expected to Enter Top 40, NPH to Exit

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE December rebalance. OUT is expected to enter the Top 40 with NPH falling out.

DMA

Fire Sale for Anglo Coal Bidders

The company had consistent production levels for copper and zinc, with cost performance varying between Matsa and Matteo, as well as an overall...

Money of Mine

Base metals, including copper, have been on the rise due to factors beyond the "Trump tariff bump," driven by increased real world demand and not...

Hindustan Copper could see earnings surge over 60% with sustained copper price buoyancy, driven by fundamental factors and mining cost dynamics.