Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday in the closing auction, JSE indices will be rebalanced. PPH will enter the Top 40, with AMS falling out.</li>
<li>There are also a number of changes to the ALSI index – PHP &amp; PMR will be added, with THA &amp; TCP falling out.</li>
<li>Hedgers and passives tracking uncapped indices will be sellers of Naspers and Prosus whereas those tracking the capped variants will be buyers.</li>
</ul>


On Friday in the closing auction, JSE indices will be rebalanced. PPH will enter the Top 40, with AMS falling out.
There are also a number of changes to the ALSI index – PHP &amp; PMR will be added, with THA &amp; TCP falling out.
Hedgers and passives tracking uncapped indices will be sellers of Naspers and Prosus whereas those tracking the capped variants will be buyers.


JSE Sep24 Rebal: Foreign Inward Listings Amongst Top Sells, PPH to Enter Top 40, AMS to Be Deleted

<ul>
<li>Over the weekend, the FT reported that Anglo was urged by top shareholders to extend talks with BHP over its proposed merger. </li>
<li>BHP’s third unsolicited non-binding offer was rejected last Wednesday. The merger exchange ratio was raised by 9% to 0.886, an increase of 24.8% on the initial offer ratio.</li>
<li>Anglo left the door open for talks, extending the PUSU deadline for BHP to make a firm offer by 1 week to this Wednesday (29 May).</li>
</ul>


Over the weekend, the FT reported that Anglo was urged by top shareholders to extend talks with BHP over its proposed merger. 
BHP’s third unsolicited non-binding offer was rejected last Wednesday. The merger exchange ratio was raised by 9% to 0.886, an increase of 24.8% on the initial offer ratio.
Anglo left the door open for talks, extending the PUSU deadline for BHP to make a firm offer by 1 week to this Wednesday (29 May).


BHP Anglo Bid: Market Pricing Restructuring, No BHP Deal, PUSU Deadline on Wednesday

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.</li>
<li>I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.</li>
<li>There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal</li>
</ul>


On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals needed in South Africa. PUSU extended 29 May.
I update my SOTP to 2938p. Copper Fair Value, in my opinion, is £17.70 per share. This contrasts with BHP's current offer of £21.32/share for the entirety of Anglo's rump.
There is now a ~20.1% difference between the implied value of BHP's offer and the share price of Anglo. The market assumes a lower likelihood of an agreed deal


Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a></strong>'s all-scrip <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240426/pdf/062w455d52h3cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unsolicited Offer</a> for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anglo-american-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21798:1" rel="noopener">Anglo American (AAL LN)</a></strong>, zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.</li>
<li>The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.</li>
<li>The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. </li>
</ul>



BHP (BHP AU)'s all-scrip unsolicited Offer for Anglo American (AAL LN), zeroes in on AAL's copper assets as demand for the metal increases for use in EVs and renewable power.
The proposal has been labelled highly opportunistic by some shareholders and South African politicians. And that the value of AAL's Chilian/Peruvian copper mines are obscured by its sprawling business interests.
The Offer remains conditional and non-binding. A transaction hinges off AAL spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. Expect AAL to reject terms, but remain engaged. 


BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

<ul>
<li>In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.</li>
<li>We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).</li>
<li>If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.</li>
</ul>


In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.
We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).
If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.


Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

South Africa

Anglo American PLC is a global mining company. The Company's mining portfolio includes bulk commodities including iron ore, manganese, and metallurgical coal, base metals including copper and nickel and precious metals and minerals including platinum and diamonds. Anglo American has mining operations in Africa, Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia.

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Anglo American (AGL SJ)

JSE Sep24 Rebal: Foreign Inward Listings Amongst Top Sells, PPH to Enter Top 40, AMS to Be Deleted

An overview of the top buys and sells going into the JSE September rebalance on Friday. AGL & CFR are amongst the top sells, resulting from a...

DMA

BHP Anglo Bid: Market Pricing Restructuring, No BHP Deal, PUSU Deadline on Wednesday

The market is likely pricing an Anglo restructuring as the risk of a potential deal with BHP falling over appears to be high. Anglo is trading 10%...

DMA

Anglo American Rejects BHP's Increased and Final Offer

On 22 May, Anglo American rejected the last offer (0.8860) from BHP on execution risks, potential negative value impacts and additional approvals...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BHP/Anglo American: A Decarbonising Solution

When "Final" doesn't necessarily mean final. After BHP increased its (final) offer ratio terms by 24.8% to 0.8860 BHP shares for each Anglo share -...

David Blennerhassett

Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

We explore the recent takeover bid by BHP and potential JSE index effects of a takeover or restructuring that would see Amplats and Kumba unbundled.

DMA

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