HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Angelalign Technology  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Currently, Angelalign could not be compared with Align Technology in many aspects, but Angelalign’s PE/TTM indicates it may have already overdrawn the performance of the next few years.</li>
<li>The growth outlook of Angelalign has uncertainties. Any deceleration in revenues and profits in any given year is likely to lead to a significant valuation correction. </li>
<li>High valuation cannot be supported without certainty of growth. Therefore, based on our analysis, our view is that Angelalign could be a short-term trade, but not long-term hold.</li>
</ul>


Currently, Angelalign could not be compared with Align Technology in many aspects, but Angelalign’s PE/TTM indicates it may have already overdrawn the performance of the next few years.
The growth outlook of Angelalign has uncertainties. Any deceleration in revenues and profits in any given year is likely to lead to a significant valuation correction. 
High valuation cannot be supported without certainty of growth. Therefore, based on our analysis, our view is that Angelalign could be a short-term trade, but not long-term hold.


Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - Uncertain Growth Outlook

<ul>
<li>The impact of dental implants centralized procurement on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modern-dental-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21020:1" rel="noopener">Modern Dental Group (3600 HK)</a> (MDG) could be limited, and the strategic partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23573:1" rel="noopener">Meitu Inc (1357 HK)</a> on “QJ Smile” also brings more possibilities.</li>
<li>The concerns include doubts on R&amp;D/innovation capability, complex international relations, foreign policy disturbances, unsettling macro environment and immature invisible orthodontic business, bringing uncertainties in terms of future development outlook.</li>
<li>Although the 2021 full-year performance is worth looking forward to, which could be the short-term catalyst, MDG is more suitable for short term trading than long term holding.</li>
</ul>


The impact of dental implants centralized procurement on Modern Dental Group (3600 HK) (MDG) could be limited, and the strategic partnership with Meitu Inc (1357 HK) on “QJ Smile” also brings more possibilities.
The concerns include doubts on R&amp;D/innovation capability, complex international relations, foreign policy disturbances, unsettling macro environment and immature invisible orthodontic business, bringing uncertainties in terms of future development outlook.
Although the 2021 full-year performance is worth looking forward to, which could be the short-term catalyst, MDG is more suitable for short term trading than long term holding.


Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) - More Suitable for Short Term Trading than Long Term Holding

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2021 marked our sixth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. </li>
<li>Most markets were in top gear on the ECM front and we ended the year covering the highest number of IPOs and the second highest number of placements since inception.</li>
<li>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.</li>
</ul>


2021 marked our sixth year covering Equity Capital Markets (ECM) in Asia Pacific. 
Most markets were in top gear on the ECM front and we ended the year covering the highest number of IPOs and the second highest number of placements since inception.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.


Aequitas 2021 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - Busiest Year on Record

<p>The IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)</a> was obviously very successful, with the share price hitting an all-time high of HK$490/share in June 2021. However, in the following months, Angelalign’s share price continued to fall and was closed at HK$318.8/share on Oct. 25, down about 35%. On the other hand, Angelalign released it 2021 interim report. The revenue in 2021/1H was RMB571 million, up 85.0% YoY, and the net profit was RMB95.7 million, up 55.8% YoY, indicating good growth momentum. This insight mainly analyzed some points about the business and the concerns that worth investors’ attention.</p>

The IPO of Angelalign Technology (6699 HK) was obviously very successful, with the share price hitting an all-time high of HK$490/share in June 2021. However, in the following months, Angelalign’s share price continued to fall and was closed at HK$318.8/share on Oct. 25, down about 35%. On the other hand, Angelalign released it 2021 interim report. The revenue in 2021/1H was RMB571 million, up 85.0% YoY, and the net profit was RMB95.7 million, up 55.8% YoY, indicating good growth momentum. This insight mainly analyzed some points about the business and the concerns that worth investors’ attention.

Angelalign Technology (6699.HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<p>China’s largest domestic dental brace manufacturer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)</a>  shares surged to HKD 490 within one month from their issue price of HKD 173 (debuted in HKEX in June). Since then, shares are facing tough time and corrected more than 30%. In-line H1 results, lack of any near-term catalyst, and stagnant market share are looming on the share price. Shares are trading at a P/E of 76x 2023E EPS, which is higher than its nearest competitor Align Technology’s 36x. Although clear aligner market in China is huge and underpenetrated, we believe players have no pricing power as products offered have little or no differentiation and competition is rising. We expect Angelalign’s EPS will have a CAGR of 30% during 2020–2023, slower than 58% CAGR reported during 2018–2020, dragged by margin contraction due to faster growth in Lower ASP product line (Comfos) at the cost of higher ASP product line (Angelalign Pro) and introduction of lower margin scanner business. This does not justify the superior valuation. Angelalign needs to penetrate deeper in lower tiered cities and pursue its outside China initiatives to justify its premium valuation.</p>

China’s largest domestic dental brace manufacturer, Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)  shares surged to HKD 490 within one month from their issue price of HKD 173 (debuted in HKEX in June). Since then, shares are facing tough time and corrected more than 30%. In-line H1 results, lack of any near-term catalyst, and stagnant market share are looming on the share price. Shares are trading at a P/E of 76x 2023E EPS, which is higher than its nearest competitor Align Technology’s 36x. Although clear aligner market in China is huge and underpenetrated, we believe players have no pricing power as products offered have little or no differentiation and competition is rising. We expect Angelalign’s EPS will have a CAGR of 30% during 2020–2023, slower than 58% CAGR reported during 2018–2020, dragged by margin contraction due to faster growth in Lower ASP product line (Comfos) at the cost of higher ASP product line (Angelalign Pro) and introduction of lower margin scanner business. This does not justify the superior valuation. Angelalign needs to penetrate deeper in lower tiered cities and pursue its outside China initiatives to justify its premium valuation.

Angelalign Technology (6699 HK): Pricey Valuation Is Clouding the Upside Potential

China

Angelalign Technology Inc. produces and sells medical devices. The Company manufactures and sells Invisible orthodontic without brackets aligner and other products. Angelalign Technology markets its products throughout China.

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Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)